The Denver Broncos’ Javonte Williams continues to presumably approach full strength in his surgically repaired knee, but for various reasons, his overall opportunities have been somewhat capped over the first three games of the season.
Meanwhile, backfield mate Samaje Perine has seen his overall touches drop since a busy Week 1, but he continues to have a consistent role in the passing game.
With head coach Sean Payton a fan of spreading the wealth among his offensive personnel, which Denver back should fantasy managers target for a start in Week 4?
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Javonte Williams’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
As noted above, Williams has been able to ease back into the swing of things after his 2022 season ended early due to a torn ACL and LCL, but it hasn’t always been clear if that’s been by design. In fact, it’s likely safe to say Week 3 could have turned out to be Williams’ busiest yet had the Broncos not been lambasted by a Miami Dolphins team that scored a team-record 70 points.
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Williams’ 25 snaps were his lowest yet this season, but he still logged a combined 13 touches (11 rushes, two receptions) in that span. Needless to say, a game in which a running back’s team loses by 50 – as Denver did in Week 3 – is not one in which said player is expected to see much action after a certain point.
Williams played 28 snaps apiece in each of the first two weeks of the season, and over those 56 plays from scrimmage, he registered a combined 25 carries and nine targets, a very welcome opportunity rate. His aforementioned Week 3 workload, which consisted of 16 total opportunities overall when factoring in one target Williams didn’t bring in, was just as encouraging.
All that said, this Week 4 matchup against a Chicago Bears team that Denver is favored by three points over could finally be Williams’ breakout game. The third-year back should be ready to handle an 18-to-20-carry workload if that opportunity presents itself, as his conditioning should be back to normal.
He’s likely to see at least 2-3 targets as well, based on how the season has played out thus far, and the Bears are allowing a relatively elevated 121.7 rushing yards per game.
Samaje Perine’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Sean Payton would drive fantasy managers a bit batty at times during the latter portion of his New Orleans Saints tenure by capping Alvin Kamara’s workload to an extent via carries and targets he’d afford to Mark Ingram.
While Williams-Perine doesn’t necessarily mirror that situation exactly – Mark Ingram was always a more accomplished early-down back than Perine has been – Week 1 usage between the two may have evoked some unpleasant memories of such for fantasy managers.
However, those fears have subsequently proven largely unfounded, at least if the next two games are any indication. After an eight-carry Week 1, Perine has slipped back into the role we grew accustomed to seeing him in during the last few seasons in Cincinnati as Joe Mixon’s backup.
Perine logged all of one carry in the Week 2 loss to the Washington Commanders, although he did record three receptions for 20 yards on four targets. He was outsnapped by Williams in that contest, 28-17.
Then, in the historic Week 3 loss to the Dolphins, even Perine’s pass-catching prowess didn’t really come into play once Denver was in deep catch-up mode – Payton afforded him a season-low 19 snaps and five total touches (three carries, two receptions).
Undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin, who the coaching staff has been high on since the summer, actually logged five carries over 12 snaps as Payton took the opportunity to give his first-year back some game reps in the blowout.
Which Broncos Running Back Should You Start?
The answer to this question in Week 4 is, once again, Williams. The North Carolina Tar Heel alum should be ready to start delivering on the significant potential he displayed in his rookie 2021 campaign during the final days of the Vic Fangio regime when he accrued 1,219 yards and seven total touchdowns over 17 games.
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Perine is likeliest to be capped at 5-7 carries, barring any highly unusual circumstances, and even the handful of pass-catching opportunities he might see won’t give him a higher potential ceiling than Williams. Additionally, this Week 4 matchup is one where Denver doesn’t project to be trailing by a margin that would require heavy participation from Perine in an extended catch-up period.