After just a one-game absence, David Montgomery returned for the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. He immediately resumed his role as the lead back, relegating Jahmyr Gibbs to a change-of-pace role. Should fantasy football managers be looking to buy the rookie RB low? Or should they cut their losses and sell low?
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What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Jahmyr Gibbs?
After barely seeing the field in Week 1, Gibbs saw his snap share increase to 48% in Week 2. After Montgomery suffered a thigh injury, Gibbs was thrust into a lead-back role in Week 3. He played 60% of the snaps, which was nice to see, but he wasn’t utilized in the passing game at all.
Montgomery returned in Week 4, and it was right back to what it looked like in Week 2. He dominated carries, handling 32 to Gibbs’ 8. Gibbs did see five targets and caught four of them, but they totaled just 11 yards. He was also gifted a nicely set-up screen in the fourth quarter but dropped it.
Gibbs has displayed his explosiveness. The kid clearly has talent. But it’s also clear he’s not being used the way fantasy managers envisioned. The question becomes what to do with him.
If you spent a third or fourth-round pick on him, do you hold? Or do you cut your losses and try and get out now?
If you don’t have Gibbs, do you send out a feeler offer to his manager, hoping to get him cheaply from a frustrated team? Let’s explore both options.
Buy Low on Gibbs?
The argument for buying low on Gibbs is talent-based. I believe we’ve seen enough to conclude Gibbs is good at football. However, he also needs to be used in a manner that is conducive to his skill set.
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Even in his lone game as the starter, Gibbs didn’t see the role we wanted. Buying low on Gibbs would be projecting a change in usage. Four weeks isn’t a massive sample size, but the Lions have been very successful, going 3-1 to start the season. There’s no reason for them to change what’s been working.
Rookies typically improve as their debut season goes on. We definitely should expect Gibbs to play better. Unfortunately, his touchdown upside is virtually nonexistent. He will never see a goal-line carry as long as Montgomery is healthy. His only hope of scoring is to break off a long play.
Unfortunately, I think we need to chalk this up to a miss for those of us who believed in Gibbs. The role just isn’t fantasy-friendly, despite the offense being very much so. I would not buy low on Gibbs.
Sell Low on Gibbs?
It goes without saying that if you sell Gibbs now, you are doing so at a value much lower than what you paid for him in fantasy drafts. It would be admitting defeat and just giving up on him.
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If you trade away Gibbs, what exactly are you getting in return? If you can get a reliable WR3, that might be worth it. But I’m not even sure if you’d be able to do that. Plus, it’s not as if Gibbs is completely unstartable. He’s still useful. He’s just not the guy his drafters thought he’d be.
At this point, I don’t see much value in selling Gibbs. The upside probably isn’t there, but room for growth does exist. Unless someone out there is willing to overpay for Gibbs, I would just hold, hope for better game scripts, and expect more efficient play going forward.