This game looked like a lot of fun for fantasy football purposes when the schedule was released, but things have changed. That said, there is still plenty of intrigue on both sides. The Kansas City Chiefs‘ fantasy outlook in this spot is centered around the receiver corps, while the New York Jets‘ fantasy preview is focused on a backfield that we once thought could have two weekly options.
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Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
- Spread: Chiefs -10
- Total: 41.5
- Chiefs implied points: 25.8
- Jets implied points: 15.8
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: With multiple touchdown passes in six straight games (and in 10 of his past 11), Mahomes continues to dazzle without much consistency to speak of at the WR position. He’s also cleared 25 rushing yards in all three weeks this season, allowing him to elevate his fantasy floor in a way he normally saves for the postseason.
The Jets are a good defense, but Mahomes is a great player. Advantage Mahomes.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: We finally got him into the end zone, but again, it could have been more. Jerick McKinnon scored twice from short range, but there is still no doubt in my mind as to who the lead back in this offense is.
The touch count is never going to overwhelm because most of Pacheco’s touches mean one less opportunity for Mahomes. But with over five fantasy points as a pass catcher in two of three games this season, I continue to be encouraged by the improved versatility.
Pacheco is a low-end RB2 for me that carries the potential to have a top-15 week if he can cash in his opportunities from inside the 10-yard line.
Jerick McKinnon: After failing to rank as a top-45 RB in either of the first two weeks this season, McKinnon was RB8 in the blowout win over the Bears. If a backup running back dominates Chicago, does it make a noise?
For me, the answer is no. If the goal was to make him a part of this offense, we would have seen more usage to open the season. McKinnon is tethered to an elite offense and showed off his potential down the stretch last season, so he deserves to be rostered, but putting him in the top 40 at the position is overly optimistic.
Breece Hall: “I want to bet on the talent of him but can’t because of this offense.” You can copy and paste that line to the Garrett Wilson profile.
Hall out-snapped Dalvin Cook 2:1, a role that, if he held it with Aaron Rodgers under center, would have him as a top-15 back. Instead, I’ve got him ranked as a low-end Flex option because this offense simply doesn’t threaten defenses in any form or fashion.
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He carried the ball 12 times for 18 yards last week in a brutal showing. For the season, per the Week 4 Cheat Sheet, 53.9% of his yards on the ground came on a single carry (83 yards in the Week 1 win over Buffalo). This backfield is very much trending the way of the Bears and Steelers in that they offer zero running backs I want in my starting lineup.
Dalvin Cook: By no means do you have to hold onto Cook at this point. He ran eight times for 18 yards last week and has now finished outside of the top 45 running backs in consecutive weeks. I think there’s a decent chance he makes it three straight such weeks against a Chiefs defense that we underrated this preseason.
Wide Receivers
Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice: Both of these receivers have shown glimpses of upside. Moore has seen his target count increase each week, while Rice was just a few feet away from a multi-score in Week 3.
MORE: Week 4 Fantasy WR Rankings
However, the weekly floor is simply too low to consider the options in a week with every team in action. With bye weeks coming up, both of these talented receivers deserve to be rostered, but at the moment, they are more “in case of emergency” Flex players than realistic options.
Kadarius Toney: A toe injury plagued Toney during practice last week, and it impacted him in Week 3 (two first-quarter snaps). A healthy Toney has the potential to be interesting, though we know that is something we rarely see for consecutive weeks. If you have roster space to spare, I don’t blame you for holding onto Toney, but if roster spots are at a premium, you can do better.
Garrett Wilson: He turned nine targets into 7.3 fantasy points last weekend against the Patriots, and with the Chiefs focused on him and him alone, I’m not sure how you project much more than that this week.
Garrett Wilson's target shares this season:
Week 1: 27.8%
Week 2: 32.0%
Week 3: 32.1%Garrett Wilson's sadness this season:
Week 1: 100%
Week 2: 100%
Week 3: 100%— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 24, 2023
Neither the talent nor the target share is in question, but a quality of target this low has a way of sapping value from even the best in the game.
This week, I have Wilson outside of my top 35 receivers. It wasn’t hard to convince myself to slot him behind both Tutu Atwell and Jordan Addison. Imagine saying that in late August. What a difference a month makes!
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: I’ll save you all the Taylor Swift wordplay: You’ve made it this far and probably don’t need that from me, given that every medium out there seems to be making similar jokes. I will tell you that (shocker) I have Kelce ranked as my TE1 this week.
On the podcast this week, I raised the idea of trading Kelce. Not that he won’t be an elite option the rest of the way, but if you’re struggling and can get a Tier 2 or 3 tight end with a locked-in starter elsewhere, I think you’d be wise to at least consider the idea.
Should You Start Skyy Moore or Rashee Rice?
Counting on a Chiefs receiver is not for the faint of heart, but with Rice narrowly missing a breakout game in Week 3, he’s the one I “trust” most. Through three weeks, 48.2% of Moore’s receiving yards have come on a single play, making his floor one that scares me off of playing him over his rookie teammate.
Should You Start Breece Hall or De’Von Achane?
I’m down on Achane compared to the industry, and even I am siding with the rookie in this spot. As talented as I believe Hall to be, he simply isn’t being put in advantageous spots, something we know won’t be a problem for Achane.
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I have Hall projected for a few more opportunities, but this is a quality-over-quantity situation at the back end of my Flex ranks, and Achane wins that battle.