There is nothing like divisional rivalries, and this one shouldn’t disappoint in the fantasy football department. The Baltimore Ravens‘ fantasy preview takes a look at this passing game under Todd Monken, while the Cleveland Browns‘ fantasy outlook again centers around their new lead running back.
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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Ravens -2
- Total: 38.5
- Ravens implied points: 20.3
- Browns implied points: 18.3
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: I’m not a parent, but I imagine seeing Jackson develop in this Todd Monken offense is akin to an adult seeing their child walk for the first time — you know it’s coming, but it’s still exciting to see.
Now, it’s important to note that children stumble when they learn to walk. They bump into things and knock things off of shelves as they catch their balance. Jackson’s version of that: No passing touchdowns and no completions of 30 yards in two of three games.
MORE: Week 4 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
A stumble may occur here, but if the usage remains, Action Jackson can overcome some deficiencies. Against the Colts, both of his rushing scores came by way of design — the last one being a thing of beauty where they spread Indy thin with receivers and called a QB draw.
The per-pass upside is a concern (Jackson ranks between Justin Fields and Desmond Ridder in aDOT) with his yards per attempt declining each week, but with a completion percentage north of 70% in every game and the rushing profile, he’s a top-six QB for me in all formats.
Deshaun Watson: There’s no shame in taking advantage of an easy matchup. Watson looked much better over the weekend against the leaky Titans than he did in a pair of divisional games to open the season. Of course, we’re back in the division this weekend against a Ravens team that held Gardner Minshew under 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 3.
Even in a good week, Watson had his moments of complete chaos (I’ve watched the play roughly 673 times). But at the end of the day, he has a pair of top-10 finishes on his 2023 résumé.
While I believe in him in the second half of the season, that doesn’t matter today as he has been ruled OUT. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, preseason star and bonafide athlete, will make the start and is only of interest in two-QB leagues or in true contrarian DFS builds.
Running Backs
Gus Edwards: It’s Gus or Bust for me in the Ravens backfield these days, and that’s not changing this week. He needs to clear through concussion protocols, and this Browns defense is no joke, but the proven efficiency and volume for Edwards will be enough to land him in my top 30 running backs.
He’s averaging five yards per carry again this season, something he’s done every year of his career. In two games against Cleveland last season, Edwards ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, again showcasing his consistent per-game production.
Of note: Melvin Gordon III (29 snaps) played over Kenyan Drake (11) last week and would be my highest-ranked Raven if Edwards is ruled out, but not a top-35 play.
Justice Hill: A toe injury resulted in Hill sitting out last week, continuing the tough injury luck that seems to constantly plague Ravens running backs. Baltimore doesn’t have their bye until Week 13, meaning that Hill will have to recover on the fly. He doesn’t matter in terms of your starting lineup, but any usage he absorbs hurts Edwards’ value.
Jerome Ford: As expected, Ford’s role in Week 3 wasn’t what we saw when he was thrown into the Nick Chubb game plan in Week 2. He ended up coming through for fantasy managers because of a pair of touchdowns, but 12 touches for 51 yards isn’t exactly encouraging.
He out-snapped Kareem Hunt 40-14 (including a 7-2 edge on third downs), and that was good to see. However, we’ll have to see if it’s sustainable as Hunt works into game shape.
Ford is going to lead this backfield in production, that much I feel good about. And that role has him ranked as a low-end RB2 for me in this divisional matchup (Cleveland ran for 143 yards when these teams last met).
Kareem Hunt: While he only played 14 snaps, his eight opportunities proved that this coaching staff is plenty comfortable with Hunt.
Last season, Hunt averaged 9.3 touches per game for the Browns, a role that I think is very much available for him to regain in short order. In that vein, I expect him to take some of the shine off of Ford but not enough for him to emerge as a Flex option himself on any sort of consistent basis.
That said, he very much deserves to be rostered for a few reasons. First, I could be wrong, and he overtakes the fifth-round pick for the lead role. Second, Ford could get injured. Third, the opposing defenses down the stretch could leave the door open for multiple running backs to produce (Weeks 13-16: at LAR, vs. JAX, vs. CHI, and HOU).
For Week 4, I’m treating Hunt the same way I am a guy like Jerick McKinnon: an RB4 only to be used in a true pinch.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers: As intoxicating as Flowers’ skill set is, I fear that this receiver room is destined to irritate us by design. Baltimore is attacking defenses with a spread formation, leading to not one, not two, but six different Ravens posting 20-48 receiving yards in Week 3. Flowers had three more catches than any of his teammates had targets last week, and yet, the results were underwhelming.
Flowers is the only Ravens receiver I view as roster-worthy; I’m just not sure he develops as a consistent option during his rookie season. He has yet to post a top-20 week, and I don’t think that changes against this pass rush.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham missed the game against the Colts last week (ankle) due to an injury he suffered in the Week 2 win at Cincinnati and is iffy, at best, this week.
He only saw three targets in Week 1, but he was written into the play before getting hurt against the Bengals, as he saw two targets on the opening drive (a third target was negated by a penalty). Beckham will have his moments when healthy, but nothing that is consistent enough to have my interest.
Rashod Bateman: Feel free to move on here. He has earned just nine targets through three games and is yet to have a 20-yard reception. Targets are only going to be more difficult to come by with time as Flowers develops. And with Jackson ranking outside of the top 20 in aDOT, this Todd Monken offense isn’t built to support a player like Bateman.
Amari Cooper: If Watson can build on his Week 3, Cooper has the potential to work his way into my top-12 receivers the rest of the way. For the season, he has accounted for 26.2% of Cleveland receptions and 35.8% of their receiving yards, a role that gives him elite upside in an offense that will likely take to the air more moving forward.
In Week 3, Cooper was robbed of a 65-yard touchdown when it was ruled that he stepped out of bounds when he didn’t. If that connects, we are talking about another 10 fantasy points and plenty of excitement within the industry (he was WR9 without that play). It’s coming.
He led the Browns in receiving in both games against these Ravens last season (18.9 yards per catch) and is a good bet to do so again this week, though he did slide down six spots in my WR ranks with the news that DTR is starting. Still, he’s a low-end WR2 who should be in lineups.
This was Deshaun Watson’s best play in a Browns uniform.
pic.twitter.com/IqjW7odCEe— Anthony Alford (@AnthonyAlford92) September 24, 2023
Elijah Moore: There might not be a receiver who has played in all three games with under 25 fantasy points this season that I’m more bullish on than Moore. I believe that we’ve seen the worst version of Watson that we will this season, and with that comes an upside to his safety blanket.
Moore was responsible for six of Watson’s first 12 completions last week against the Titans, a level of involvement that doesn’t happen by accident. He has earned at least seven targets in all three games this season and is averaging two rush attempts per game. The rushing usage has yet to result in much, and, honestly, I don’t care.
MORE: Week 4 Fantasy WR Rankings
To me, the rushing attempts are an acknowledgment from the team that they want the ball in Moore’s hands. What more could we ask for? As this team transitions away from a Nick Chubb-focused offense, Moore’s best days are ahead.
He was a top-30 receiver for me entering this week with Watson projected as the starter, but with the QB change, he falls more in the risk/reward flex option as he fell down 10 spots in my positional ranks.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: I don’t hate the idea of plugging DPJ in as a bye-week Flex option when the time comes if Watson builds on the step forward he took in Week 3, but we aren’t there yet. The deep threat has seen just 10 targets this season and has seven straight games with under 50 receiving yards dating back to last season.
If you need support in throwing a dart on him this week, he did catch all four of his targets from Watson when these teams last met, including the game’s only touchdown. Do with that what you will; I’m not playing him this week and have him ranked outside of my top 40 at the position.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews: After missing Week 1, Andrews has nine catches for 80 yards on his 2023 ledger, letting fantasy managers down to a degree thus far. Relax.
He has a 20-yard catch in both games, and his role as the top target earner in this offense is going nowhere. With this Monken offense opting for short/quick passes, you can expect Andrews’ elite PPR reproduction to return sooner rather than later. If he’s available for any sort of discount from what was paid on draft day, pounce!
David Njoku: Even though it’s been a spotty start to the season for Watson, Njoku has caught 10 of 11 targets, making him a reasonable fantasy option if you believe this offense is going to improve with time. He did see 25.5% of the targets in the two games these teams played last season – role upside that lands him as a top-12 tight end for me this weekend, though he’s now a fringe option with the change under center.
Should You Start Zay Flowers or Elijah Moore?
As much as I like Flowers’ talent, I fear that his low-upside targets, combined with the aggression of this Browns defense, could be a problem. On the other side, Moore is being fed consistent targets, and that should continue to be the case here as Cleveland puts more value in the passing game following the Nick Chubb injury.
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I have both of these receivers as very viable Flex plays, but if asked to choose one, give me Moore for this week.