Rookie tight ends are historically terrible fantasy assets. But apparently, this year’s rookie TE class is one of, if not the best of all time. The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are each deploying a rookie TE as their full-time starter. Should fantasy football managers start Sam LaPorta or Luke Musgrave in Week 4 lineups?
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Sam LaPorta’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
There were several rookie tight ends worth taking a shot on this season. Through three weeks, the best one, by far, has been LaPorta.
Not only is LaPorta playing about 80% of the snaps, but he’s actually being targeted. A 23% target share is great for a WR2, let alone a tight end.
LaPorta is currently the TE2 on the season. He has caught at least five passes in every game this season and finished as a TE1 in all three games. I believe he is the only tight end who can make that claim (but I’m not 100% on that). He’s been excellent, which is extremely rare for rookie TEs at any point during their rookie season, let alone right out of the gate.
The Packers are a good, not great opponent. LaPorta will also have to play with road Jared Goff, who is a very different quarterback from home Goff. Some might say they are entirely different people.
In his last 13 road starts, Goff has thrown multiple touchdowns just once. LaPorta scored last week, but I don’t like his odds to score this week.
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With that said, the Packers have been below average against tight ends. Opponents have targeted the position 23.5% of the time against them. That bodes well for LaPorta, who remains the clear second option in the Lions’ passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Luke Musgrave’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Luke Musgrave has not been nearly as good as LaPorta. However, he’s still been a TE1. Musgrave is currently the TE10 by total fantasy points. He is also out there for around 80% of the snaps.
The primary difference is Musgrave has only seen a 15.6% target share. He’s also had the benefit of playing without Christian Watson, making his primary target competition Romeo Doubs and rookie Jayden Reed. Even so, Musgrave has put up useful fantasy numbers.
What’s appealing about Musgrave is what the box score doesn’t show. Jordan Love has missed Musgrave on two wide-open touchdowns already. I imagine the general perception of Musgrave would be much different if even one of those had connected.
Watson is expected to return on Thursday night, but I still like Musgrave in this matchup. 34.8% of the receiving yards allowed by the Lions have gone to tight ends. That is the most in the league. No team has faced a larger target share to the tight end position.
While the Lions played the Kansas City Chiefs on opening night, which normally would skew those numbers, tight end Travis Kelce didn’t play. That makes it more likely that the tight end position is simply a weakness for this defense.
Which of the Rookie TEs Should You Start?
This is being presented as an either/or scenario. Between LaPorta and Musgrave, the answer is clearly LaPorta.
Sam LaPorta is seeing an Elite TE Role
Finished TE8 or better all three games
2nd most Targets among all TEs
80%+ Routes back to back weeksBest Rookie TE we have seen in SO LONG
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) September 25, 2023
However, my real answer is: Why not both?
LaPorta is currently the TE7 in our PFN Consensus Rankings. Musgrave is the TE10. But if you check out the rankings page, you will see that I am noticeably higher on both than the rest of the crew.
We have already seen LaPorta break out. I believe Musgrave’s time is coming. If you have both, congratulations on your embarrassment of riches. Start LaPorta. If you only have one of them, regardless of which one, he is a TE1 this week and very much worth putting in fantasy lineups.