The Super Bowl matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs will have talent all over the field. Last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes, two of the best tight ends in football in George Kittle and Travis Kelce, a dominant 49ers running game, a blazing fast Chiefs receiving core; the list seems almost endless. I’m not about to lie to you and claim that those players won’t have a significant impact on how Super Bowl LIV unfolds. Their reputations as some of the NFL’s best is well-earned. That said, one group of players unfairly getting lost in the shuffle are the 49ers wide receivers, who have quietly had an excellent season. They aren’t as flashy as their counterparts from Kansas City, but in many ways, they have had the better season overall.
Why the 49ers wide receivers are being underestimated
It is difficult to blame people for overlooking the 49ers wide receivers. After all, San Francisco managed to defeat the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game with Jimmy Garoppolo only attempting eight passes. Statistically speaking, the wide receivers might as well have not been playing. Things didn’t look much better during the regular season, either. None of the 49ers wide receivers had more than 1,000 yards, and they were consistently outdone by Kittle, who ended up as the team’s overall leader in receiving yards.
Of course, Kittle might be the best player in the NFL at his position, but those statistics still don’t paint the best picture for the wide receivers. However, their lack of statistical production is less the result of personal failings and more a product of the role they were forced to fill. They simply aren’t the primary focus of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. When we take that into consideration, it rapidly becomes clear just how effective the 49ers wide receivers were in 2019.
Using the OSM to grade Deebo Samuel
In a situation like this one, where the primary limit on a player’s production was the opportunities given to them rather than their own abilities, PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM) is invaluable. The metric was created to measure how well a player performed irrespective of how the team around them played. When using this metric to examine the wide receivers that will be playing in the Super Bowl, San Francisco has a distinct advantage. Rookie Deebo Samuel is the best example. Statistically speaking, he had a solid first season in the NFL, with 802 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but that doesn’t tell the full story. During the regular season, Samuel received the second-highest overall OSM grade of any wide receiver at 38.63, implying that, although his statistics were merely mediocre, he made the most of every chance that he got.
The reason Samuel graded so highly doesn’t come down to just one factor. Instead, he was consistently excellent across several categories that go into calculating the OSM. First of all, his catch percentage was remarkably high. He caught 70.37% of the passes thrown his way, which was 6th among qualifying wide receivers. Second, he averaged 8.5 yards after the catch. Only A.J. Brown, of the Tennessee Titans, averaged more. Arguably more impressive was the difference between that average and what he should have averaged according to the NFL. The NFL calculates the number of yards a receiver theoretically should have gained after catching the ball, based on a number of factors including how fast the wide receiver was moving at the time of the catch, and how far away the nearest defender was, among others. Samuel excelled in this metric as well, gaining an average of 1.6 more yards on his receptions than he should have, the eighth highest differential among qualifying wide receivers. On the whole, Samuel shone in almost every relevant statistical category.
Comparing the Chiefs and 49ers wide receivers using the OSM
The only Chiefs receiver who came close to Samuel in terms of OSM grade was Tyreek Hill. He received a grade of 35.44, only good enough for 16th overall during the regular season. When you dig into that grade, it rapidly becomes clear why that was the case. Hill was far from awful statistically, but Samuel outperformed him in almost every area. Hill only caught 65.17% of the passes thrown his way, and he also averaged significantly fewer yards after the catch than you might expect given his reputation, at just 4.9. Even worse, that average is only 0.6 yards higher than expected according to the NFL’s calculations. Again, none of these statistics are terrible, but they all pale in comparison to Samuel’s numbers.
Going further down the two teams’ depth charts, the difference between them becomes even more apparent. To start with, Hill wasn’t even the second-highest graded player. Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco’s third-string receiver, was ranked just above him at 14th. The other receivers are further down: Emanuel Sanders graded at 37th, and Kansas City’s Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson at 55th and 56th (Mecole Hardman did not receive enough targets to qualify). Overall, Hill was the only receiver for the Chiefs who performed at a comparable level to San Francisco’s players. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they are worse players in an objective sense, but it does indicate that they were not able to maximize their opportunities to the same level that the 49ers wide receivers were.
The 49ers wide receivers will play a key role in Super Bowl LIV
No single factor will decide the game come Sunday night. If all goes well, we will see an intense, back-and-forth battle between two of the NFL’s best teams and some of the league’s biggest stars. But in a matchup as tightly contested as Super Bowl LIV will likely be, crucial plays will inevitably come from unexpected places. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers wide receivers, consistently underrated throughout the season, end up tipping the scales in San Francisco’s favor at a critical moment.