Fantasy Football managers would have been disappointed with the returns they got from Christian Kirk in Week 1. Was it a one-off or a continuing trend?
In Week 2, is Kirk someone you should consider starting this week? Or should Kirk remain firmly on fantasy managers’ benches this week?
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Should I Start or Sit Christian Kirk in Fantasy This Week?
Week 1 was not one to celebrate for Kirk’s fantasy managers. Kirk ended up with just three targets and only caught one of them for nine yards. On Kirk’s three targets, he only averaged 6.7 air yards per target (aDOT) which was the lowest of the three main wide receivers for the Jaguars.
#Jaguars WR Christian Kirk talks Week 2 vs Chiefs, Week 1 at Colts pic.twitter.com/eKHHNyhB7c
— 1010 XL / 92.5 FM (@1010XL) September 13, 2023
The other concern, other than the aDOT, was that when the Jaguars switched from 11 personnel to two wide receiver sets, Kirk struggled to get on the field. While fantasy managers might have been shocked by this, this shouldn’t have been a surprise.
For all of the preseason, the Jaguars have lined up Zay Jones in the majority of the two wide receiver sets with Calvin Ridley.
This is a significant concern for Kirk’s usage moving forward. It doesn’t help Kirk when Jones makes incredible plays like he did for the touchdown he scored.
This formation setting meant Kirk was fourth in the team in percentage of routes run, running routes on just 66% of plays. He was behind Ridley (97% of routes run), Jones (94% of routes run), and Evan Engram (89% of routes run).
Therefore, with Kirk appearing to be the wide receiver three on the Jags and potentially the fourth target on the team, it is hard to advocate having Kirk in your starting lineup. It is only Week 1. Thus, it isn’t time to give up on Kirk just yet. And, in certain matchups, he could be fantasy-viable.
Fantasy Outlook for Kirk vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars have a great matchup for fantasy vs. the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs allowed the 13th-most receiving yards in the NFL in 2022. However, they also gave up the most receiving touchdowns of any time in the NFL.
In 2021, the Chiefs gave up the fifth-most receiving yards and the 13th-most receiving touchdowns. Therefore, with the Jaguars offense, this matchup is appealing.
However, for Christian Kirk, his matchup against Trent McDuffie is one for concern. McDuffie, according to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, only lined up in the slot 32% last week.
However, this week, I would expect him to line up more in the slot to be matched up with Kirk. Last week, McDuffie only saw 10.7% of targets per route run and only gave up 0.18 fantasy points per route run.
McDuffie is arguably the best cornerback on the Chiefs. The matchups for Zay Jones vs. L’Jarius Sneed and Calvin Ridley vs. Joshua Williams are certainly more advantageous matchups that Doug Pederson and Press Taylor will target more often.
MORE: Week 2 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Kirk is currently ranked at WR36 and 94th overall in the PFN Consensus Rankings. However, with his low percentage of routes run due to his lack of involvement in two wide receiver sets, his low target volume, and his matchup vs. McDuffie, I would have him ranked considerably lower than that.
Therefore, Kirk should be sitting on your fantasy benches this week.