T.J. Hockenson caught eight balls in the Minnesota Vikings‘ season-opening loss to Tampa Bay, but he managed just 35 yards and failed to score. Should fantasy football managers be encouraged by the usage or worried about the lack of upside in those looks?
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Should I Start or Sit T.J. Hockenson in Fantasy This Week?
Start him, and our PFN Consensus Rankings support that thought. Targets are currency at the tight end position, and by earning 20.5% of Kirk Cousins’ passes, Hock is a lineup lock on Thursday Night Football.
Fantasy Outlook for Hockenson vs. Eagles
Could he be the best tight end in fantasy this week? It’s not out of the question, given how the Eagles play defense. In their Week 1 win over the Patriots, the Eagles surrendered 25 targets to RB/TEs. Those are short, high-percentage targets that result in a safe fantasy floor for a high-usage option like Hockenson.
This style of defending is nothing new for Philly, just like the recent target shares during their 2022 playoff run:
- Super Bowl: Travis Kelce/JuJu Smith-Schuster: 60% target share
- NFC Title Game: George Kittle/Deebo Samuel: 66.7% target share
- NFC Divisional Round: Richie James: 38.5% target share
MORE: Fantasy Football’s Week 2 Burning Start/Sit Questions
As you can see, there is a clear pattern of giving up short targets. With the Eagles favored by a touchdown, it is reasonably safe to project a pass-heavy Vikings game script. With that being the case, another 8-10 targets for Hockenson are very much within the range of likely outcomes.
TJ Hockenson loves playing in front of a hostile crowd – … on to Philly pic.twitter.com/yrbFURRtPl
— Dawn Mitchell (@DawnAtFOX9) September 12, 2023
Last season, Hock averaged 1.2 fantasy points per target after being traded from Detroit, and that was without much in the way of scoring luck. I happen to believe the Vikings can keep this game close, and if Cousins approaches the 44 attempts he threw in Week 1, Hockenson is going to be a top-five performer at the position … and potentially better!