Our first NFL Sunday is finally here! The NFL week 1 odds have been out since May, giving us plenty of time to make our picks and predictions for these games.
PFN’s betting experts Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Director of Betting Brian Blewis, and Betting and Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz give their NFL best bets for Week 1 of the 2023 season.
We’ll be updating this throughout Sunday morning as we submit more best bets.
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/dynamic/sportsbooks:1,2,11,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/promos:1?id=06129fe1-7a3b-4372-a453-dc70b7eb816a”]NFL Week 1 Best Bets
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -9.5 - Moneyline
Texans +370, Ravens -485 - Total
44 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
M&T Bank Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: All of the trends are in the Ravens’ favor in this one. Under John Harbaugh, they’re 11-4 ATS in Week 1 and 14-2 SU against rookie quarterbacks at home. But this is too many points in my opinion.
Although the Ravens have typically started the season strong with Lamar Jackson, this will be his first time as the opening-week starter in a new offense. We expect this to be an improved offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but the results might not come right away, even against the Houston Texans.
Under new head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have much more talent on defense than in the last couple of seasons, so the unit should be much better in 2023.
This isn’t one of my best bets, but if I were to make a pick, I would lean towards taking the Texans and the points.
Best Bet: Texans +10 (-110) made earlier this week
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:houston-texans-baltimore-ravens/variant:2?id=fea137cb-c5bc-4c98-ac98-65890459f2c7″]Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders Prediction
- Spread
Commanders -7 - Moneyline
Cardinals +250, Commanders -310 - Total
38 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
FedEx Field - How To Watch
Fox, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: It’s no secret that the Cardinals are tanking. It’s no secret that they are projected to be the worst team in football. However, I think sportsbooks are underestimating how bad the Cardinals are going to be.
MORE: FREE Betting Odds Calculator
By the looks of it, Josh Dobbs is going to start in Week 1. This team is on the road against a not terrible Commanders defense. And they’re going to score more than two touchdowns? My prediction is that by October, the Cardinals’ weekly team total is around 12.5. This number is too high.
Best Bet: Cardinals team total under 15.5 (-110); *Note: This is now down to 14.5. I would still take it at this number.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:arizona-cardinals-washington-commanders/variant:2?id=2729f761-572a-4b90-941a-9b26e12cff60″]Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -5 - Moneyline
Jaguars -245, Colts +200 - Total
46.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium - How To Watch
Fox, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: The Jaguars are favored on the road against the Colts. The game script should favor them, enabling them to give Etienne somewhere in the range of 13-15 carries, at minimum. 20+ is certainly on the table.
Etienne started taking over as the leadback for the Jaguars in Week 5 of last season. He went over this number in eight of his next 12 games (I am excluding the game in which he got hurt after five snaps). This includes a game against the Colts where he ran for 86 yards.
Last season, Etienne averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Even at 4.0 ypc, he would only need 15 carries to hit the over.
Best Bet: Travis Etienne over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:jacksonville-jaguars-indianapolis-colts/variant:2?id=e7ad70ae-2c50-4b94-8884-921e8d92f09c”]Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -5.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +190, Vikings -230 - Total
45.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
U.S. Bank Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: Baker Mayfield isn’t a Hall of Famer, but he is viable. Given the talent of the playmakers on this Bucs offense, that’s enough to score points against a very vulnerable Vikings defense.
The beauty of the leaky defense of Minnesota? Their offense can put up points just as fast, thus encouraging up-tempo and aggressive style of play on both sides. Sign me up. Sign me up for fantasy football, for DFS, and for betting. Need some trends to hammer this idea home? No problem, Inside Edge has you more than covered:
- Overs went 7-2 when playing at home (highest in the NFL)
- Overs are 13-7 since 2021 when MIN is favored
- Overs are 37-13 in MIN games over the past 3 seasons, highest)
Best Bet: Over 45.5 points (-110)
Blewis: Everyone knows the Vikings were the most fraudulent 13-win team in NFL history last season, with 11 of those wins coming in one-score games and having a negative point differential. When it comes to the 2022 Vikings, I’m going to have to disagree with Bill Parcells — their record did not say who they were.
The Buccaneers might end up being one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. But the disparity between them and on the road at Minnesota isn’t this many points, especially when you consider Soppe’s point above about Baker Mayfield not being as big of a downgrade as you would expect from the 2022 version of Tom Brady.
If there was any matchup for him and Mike Evans/Chris Godwin to exploit, it would be this passing defense, which ranked 31st in yards allowed last season.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +6 (-110) made earlier this week
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:tampa-bay-buccaneers-minnesota-vikings/variant:2?id=b16e1abe-a22e-44bd-b78c-d85db59eea55″]San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -2 - Moneyline
49ers -135, Steelers +114 - Total
41.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
Acrisure Stadium - How To Watch
Fox, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: Katz and I have ridden the Steelers train all preseason and have money to spend on Pittsburgh. Granted, it was the preseason, but the offense looked better than any of the other 31 teams in August.
To be honest, this pick is more about not believing in the Niners just yet. In the end, they will probably be one of the top NFC teams, but remember, the last time we saw Brock Purdy, his arm was falling off in the NFC title game. Nick Bosa hasn’t been in camp, and it hasn’t been all roses for San Fran this offseason, dealing with the Trey Lance drama.
A lot of people are on this Niners bandwagon, and as we saw last year in Week 1 in their horrible loss to the Bears, all is not as it seems in the first week of the season. The Steelers are as well-coached as anyone and getting 2.5 at home in what amounts to a 10:00 a.m. local start for the Niners. I’m taking it a step further than my peers. Give me the Steelers OUTRIGHT!
Best Bet: Steelers ML (+120) made earlier this week
Katz: Diontae Johnson is one of the most elite target earners in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, he’s commanded 147, 169, and 144 targets. His 27% target share last season was 13th in the league.
In 17 games played last season, Johnson had eight games with double-digit targets. He had a whopping 12 games with at least five receptions. I’m expecting at least 2-3 layup low aDOT catches for Johnson. Going forward, his receptions line should regularly be 5.5 or perhaps even 6.5. This may be the only time we get a number this low.
Best Bet: Diontae Johnson over 4.5 receptions (-115)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:san-francisco-49-ers-pittsburgh-steelers/variant:2?id=45c66d44-da90-47a4-bae6-eb5d4c2d4f15″]Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Bengals -130, Browns +110 - Total
47.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
Cleveland Browns Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: I’m high on the Cleveland Browns this season and lower than consensus on the Cincinnati Bengals. Considering they’re playing each other in Week 1, and these public opinions are baked into the price, I have to take the Browns here, right?
Joe Burrow missed the entire preseason due to a calf injury. He missed the 2022 preseason as well with an injury and was rather rusty in his first two starts, throwing for two touchdowns and four interceptions, with a 73.1 QB rating. After sitting out nearly all of training camp, his first game back will be against a Browns defense that could have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season, led by Myles Garrett.
On the other side, the Browns should be much more efficient offensively than they were with Deshaun Watson last season. He has shaken off the rust and has had more time to get acclimated to the offense.
I think this is nearly a coin-flip game, but with the Browns getting points at home? Give me the Browns.
Best Bet: Browns +2.5 (-110)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:cincinnati-bengals-cleveland-browns/variant:2?id=7aa94520-3989-4a04-bfb2-0931db4b0b3d”]Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
- Spread
Saints -3 - Moneyline
Titans +140, Saints -166 - Total
42 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
Caesars Superdome - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: It’s not a surprise I would be on the Saints here, as I touted them throughout the offseason as a sleeper team due to their ridiculously easy schedule and awful division. They now have a veteran QB in Derek Carr, who has playmakers in Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, and an above-average defense.
I am not sure what to make of the Titans. On one hand, they return the coach, QB, and All-Pro RB from a 2021 team that earned a top seed in the AFC and a 2022 team that started 7-3. But the same 2022 team lost its last seven games to miss the playoffs. I just think the Saints are the better team, and I’m not worried about giving up three at home. The Saints get off hot in what realistically could be a 6-0 start.
Best Bet: Saints -3 (-110)
Katz: If this weren’t Week 1, I would probably pause at seeing a Ryan Tannehill pass attempts line this high. But the books are just as in the dark as we are. Since Derrick Henry’s emergence, Last season, Tannehill made 12 starts. He went over 31 pass attempts in just four of them. I also believe the Titans are going to win this game. Since 2021, Tannehill has won 18 games. He’s gone over this number in four of them.
Best Bet: Ryan Tannehill under 31.5 pass attempts (-115)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:tennessee-titans-new-orleans-saints/variant:2?id=2d5c2793-d794-4f76-b4e1-7c5c4cf32b00″]Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -3.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +164, Falcons -198 - Total
39.5 - Game Time
1:00 p.m. EST - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium - How To Watch
Fox, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Last year, the Falcons ran the ball more than any team in the NFL. This year, they spent the eighth overall pick on the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Does this strike you as a team that intends to lead their third-round sophomore QB to air it out in the first week?
The Falcons are field goal home favorites against the Panthers. Even if they lose this game, I highly doubt the game script will get away from them. They will be able to run the ball. Absent a couple of big plays from Drake London or Kyle Pitts, we are going to see a whole lot of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the ground. I think Desmond Ridder finishes somewhere between 170 and 180 passing yards.
Best Bet: Desmond Ridder under 199.5 passing yards (-115)
Blewis: I don’t like overreacting to the preseason, but I can’t help myself after watching the Carolina Panthers’ first-team offense. My expectations were already low for them this season, but man, that was tough to watch.
Bryce Young might go on to have a very long and successful career, but I’m expecting growing pains for him and this offense initially, especially since his wide receivers are already banged up, his offensive line looks like a major weakness, and Frank Reich-coached teams historically start the season slow.
On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons should be a much better team in 2023 on both sides of the ball. As long as Desmond Ridder can protect the football and be a game manager, this offense should be explosive due to its talented set of skill position players in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, as well as their head coach and play caller in Arthur Smith.
These are two teams that I see going in opposite directions this season, and it starts in Week 1.
Best Bet: Falcons -3.5 (-110)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:carolina-panthers-atlanta-falcons/variant:2?id=def29d7c-d2f4-4ba0-90f6-33c480b92dbc”]Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -3.5 - Moneyline
Eagles -198, Patriots +164 - Total
45 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Gillette Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: Philly is a far better team here and should be favored by 6-7 points. The line has moved back and forth from 3.5 to 4.5 and is now back to 3.5, which allows us to buy it down to -3 for 27 cents. The Eagles are a touchdown favorite better than New England, so this will likely be one of my best bets of the week.
The Eagles return a 14-win team that arguably got better through the drafting of Georgia’s entire defense. Nothing the Patriots did in the offseason got me excited. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki are good players, but this was an eight-win team last year that won’t be any better this season. Lay the wood.
Best Bet: Eagles -3 (-127 at SugarHouse) made earlier this week
Katz: We all know D’Andre Swift’s proficiency as a receiver. This line suggests uncertainty regarding his role in the offense, and whether the Eagles will throw to their running backs.
Swift is too talented of a player to not see at least a couple of targets. He went over this number in all but one game last season. He can do this on one reception. I’m confident the Eagles draw up at least one screen for him. All we need is for him to take it 11 yards. I will take the chance that this ends up being the lowest we see Swift’s receiving yardage total all season.
Best Bet: D’Andre Swift over 10.5 receiving yards (-120)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:philadelphia-eagles-new-england-patriots/variant:2?id=8d7b7d1b-64b6-4a95-8412-0fdb597abfef”]Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction
- Spread
Seahawks -5 - Moneyline
Rams +185, Seahawks -225 - Total
46 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Lumen Field - How To Watch
Fox, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Tutu Atwell has been in the NFL for two years. He has a total of 298 receiving yards. He wasn’t good enough to even earn a single offensive snap as a rookie.
Last season, Atwell was forced into action due to injuries to Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. In Week 14, it looked like Atwell had arrived. He caught five of nine targets for 50 yards. Then, over the final four games of the season, despite averaging over an 80% snap share, his highest receiving yardage total was 27.
Best Bet: Tutu Atwell under 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:los-angeles-rams-seattle-seahawks/variant:2?id=d680e70d-e56c-4e0d-bfd0-68731b64e88e”]Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Prediction
- Spread
Broncos -3.5 - Moneyline
Raiders +150, Broncos -180 - Total
44 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Empower Field at Mile High - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: I understand the excitement around Denver with Sean Payton in town, but are we giving them a little too much credit out of the gate here? They are, after all, the league’s worst-scoring offense from 2022 and playing with (at best) a compromised version of both their RB1 and WR1.
On the other side, the Raiders had two All-Pros last season (Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams) and could have a third this season on the defensive side by way of Maxx Crosby. That’s a lot of upside, and with the professional game manager of Jimmy Garoppolo under center, this thing is going to be tight.
Since 2019, Garoppolo has thrown at least 20 passes in 46 games, and in just eight of them did his squad lose by more than four points. In a perfect world, you can catch this spread at four points (always make sure to line shop!), but even without the extra half-a-point, I’ll happily back the Silver and Black.
Best Bet: Raiders +3.5
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:las-vegas-raiders-denver-broncos/variant:2?id=3e25e636-3659-453a-b380-5fd0aeb00f48″]Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -3 - Moneyline
Dolphins +136, Chargers -162 - Total
51 - Game Time
4:25 PM EST - Location
SoFi Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Fubo TV, Paramount Plus, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: It’s no secret that the bulk of Tua Tagovailoa’s passes will go in the direction of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But this game has the highest projected point total of the day. There should be a ton of offense and a ton of passing.
Braxton Berrios won the Dolphins WR3 job. Hill and Waddle can’t catch every pass. He can go over this number on just two receptions. It wouldn’t surprise me if this hit on the first drive.
Best Bet: Braxton Berrios over 16.5 receiving yards -115
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:miami-dolphins-los-angeles-chargers/variant:2?id=422e3d24-a7d8-4915-a478-66377600a83c”]Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Bears -1 - Moneyline
Packers -102, Bears -118 - Total
42 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Soldier Field - How To Watch
Fox, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Every year, the NFL likes to gift us with seemingly low totals for wide receivers who aren’t good enough to play in the NFL. Last year, that guy was Kenny Golladay. But it only lasted two weeks before they realized he was not actually going to catch any passes. This year, it’s Chase Claypool.
By the end of last season, Claypool was running fewer than 20 routes a game and was targeted on just 20% of them.
In his seven active games with the Bears, Claypool stayed under this number four times. I don’t believe he is part of the offense. My prediction for Claypool’s receiving yardage total this week is zero. But we just need under 15.5.
Best Bet: Chase Claypool under 15.5 receiving yards -110
Blewis: There has been too much hype surrounding Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears and not enough for the Green Bay Packers. I’m not ready to believe that Fields will make a big jump as a passer this season, and there are still too many holes on their defense.
Meanwhile, the Packers have a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball, and Jordan Love is falling under the radar a bit too much. Going into this matchup, the public opinion is that the Bears have the superior quarterback, but are we really sure about that? I guess we’ll find out.
Don’t even give me the points, I’ll take them straight up.
Pick: Packers ML (+102 at BetRivers)
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/topic:green-bay-packers-chicago-bears/variant:2?id=8a38da36-500c-4be3-bfe1-c5e28feb227e”]