Welcome to the Start/Sit Optimizer. Every week, fantasy football analysts, including those here at PFN, are inundated with start/sit questions. Here, we will highlight five of the most popular start/sit decisions and provide a little more in-depth analysis of who to start.
Who Should You Start in Fantasy Football This Week?
Daniel Jones or Tua Tagovailoa?
The Start/Sit Optimizer at Pro Football Network is comprised of our Consensus Rankings. It says to start Tua Tagovailoa. There will be instances where I disagree with the optimizer. This is not one of those.
For Week 1, the general rule of thumb is to just start players in the order in which you drafted them. Tagovailoa’s ADP was significantly higher than Daniel Jones’.
Tagovailoa averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game last season. If you remove the two games where he got hurt, he was over 23 ppg. Tua has elite QB1 upside in a favorable matchup against the Chargers. It is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Meanwhile, Jones gets a Cowboys defense that is easily among the top five in the league. Last season, Jones failed to reach 15 fantasy points in either of his two starts against the Cowboys. I still like Jones this season, but in Week 1, start Tua.
Miles Sanders or Kenneth Walker III?
The Start/Sit Optimizer has this one quite close but says to start Kenneth Walker III. Walker firmly goes ahead of Miles Sanders in fantasy drafts. It makes sense that Walker would be the preferred start. But this really is a great week for Sanders as well.
A big part of the reason to love Walker is the matchup. The Rams project to have one of the worst defenses in the league. They don’t look like a particularly imposing foe, in general.
Without Cooper Kupp in Week 1, this could be a game where the Seahawks constantly see a positive game script, enabling them to pound Walker all game. Last season, the Seahawks ran the ball 56% of the time in a positive game script. It’s a great spot for Walker.
On the other hand, I do like Sanders a lot this week. He’s not someone I drafted much, but if you have him, it doesn’t get much better than this.
The Panthers open the season on the road in Atlanta. They are small underdogs, which should result in the game not getting away from them too much.
Although Sanders isn’t much of a receiver, he should have plenty of room to run against a defense that allowed the eighth-most rushing yards in 2022. Sanders is firmly a top-20 start for me this week — just not quite on Walker’s level.
Michael Pittman Jr. or George Pickens?
The Start/Sit Optimizer says Michael Pittman Jr. is the start here. Again, this is a close one, but I agree.
As the summer went on, I warmed up a lot to the idea of a George Pickens sophomore-year breakout. I am bullish on the Steelers taking a step forward offensively. But in Week 1, I have to lean Pittman.
Pickens is still the WR2 behind Diontae Johnson, whereas Pittman is the clear and unquestioned WR1 on his offense. Pittman does have a mobile rookie QB throwing him the ball, but he has a much more favorable matchup against the Jaguars than Pickens does against what projects to be an elite 49ers defense.
If Richardson struggles as a passer, we may start fading Pittman. But for now, the Colts’ WR1 gets the start over the Steelers’ WR2.
Tyler Lockett or Alexander Mattison?
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer has this one very close but ultimately ruled in favor of Tyler Lockett. It’s always tricky when dealing with Flex decisions, as it is more difficult to compare players across positions.
Lockett finds himself in a nice Week 1 situation. The Rams project to have one of the worst defenses in the league. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba not yet back from his minor wrist procedure, Lockett is firmly locked into the WR2 role alongside DK Metcalf.
With that said, I have Mattison one spot below Lockett. It is extremely close. If you want to start the running back, I won’t blame you. Mattison’s workload, especially in Week 1, is far more secure than Lockett’s. That’s not a slight on Lockett — it’s just how it works for RBs vs. WRs.
The Vikings are home favorites against a Bucs team that is more likely to contend for Caleb Williams than a playoff spot. With 20 touches all but guaranteed, a touchdown would all but ensure a near-RB1 finish for Mattison. I lean toward Lockett because he is the better player, but Mattison is no slouch for the season’s opening salvo.
Dameon Pierce or Drake London?
The Start/Sit Optimizer has this firmly in Drake London’s favor. Normally, a three-down back like Dameon Pierce would be the clearly superior start. But I agree with the decision. For Week 1, this has to be London.
I am relatively bullish on London experiencing a sophomore-year leap after posting elite target numbers as a rookie. We know the Falcons want to run the ball, as evidenced by their 56% neutral-game-script run rate last season. But they can’t run the ball on literally every play. Even if they attempt only 20 passes, that should still be six targets for London. I still like that more than Pierce.
The crux of this analysis really rests with the Texans’ RB1. He moved up considerably in my rankings during August. He’s good at football and might have a three-down role. However, in Week 1, the matchup really couldn’t be worse.
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The Texans are on the road, starting a rookie quarterback, and facing a ferocious Ravens defense that allowed just 3.9 yards per carry to running backs last season.
To put it bluntly, I am not sure the Texans are going to score any touchdowns. If Pierce doesn’t find the end zone, I struggle to see how he reaches double-digit fantasy points.
Pierce will have plenty of weeks where he is an absolute smash. This week is not one of them. Start London over Pierce this week.