Normally picking early in fantasy football drafts feels like an advantage. However, this year feels like it’s more balanced than normal. That can evaporate quickly if you choose poorly, though!
So who are some players to consider at the 11th pick in fantasy football drafts, and how does having the 14th pick play into the strategy?
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The Top Players To Target With the No. 11 Pick
It’s hard to nitpick many of the players projected to go in the late first or early second round. There are so many options that it’s almost easier to plan out how you’d like to see pick No. 14 play out and back into the ideal option for pick No. 11. That depends on the players to go in the top 10 of fantasy football drafts, though.
For this discussion, it’s likely that all of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson are all in the top 10. The other three are more subjective and likely to be dependent upon who you’re drafting with.
Let’s take FootballGuys’ consensus ADP and assume Cooper Kupp, Saquon Barkley, and Stefon Diggs go, which seems like the fair bet. Even if not, hopefully this plays out similarly to allow for a good balance at the end of Round 1.
If this scenario plays out, it makes the strategy fairly straightforward, but let’s dive into six players to consider with the 11th pick.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Likely the top remaining RB (consensus RB5), Chubb is in the best situation of his career. He’s not set up to split work with Kareem Hunt this season and has what should be a better QB than he’s played with in his career. His last five seasons have seen him finish as the RB5, RB11, RB9, RB7, and RB16.
Over those five seasons, Chubb has maxed out at just 36 catches back in 2019. That season, he also saw a remarkable 298 carries. While unlikely to see that, 250 carries and possibly 40+ catches should push him towards another top-five season with upside for more if the offense gels.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The top WR left in this scenario, CeeDee Lamb just had his true breakout season and is set up to continue building off of that despite losing OC Kellen Moore. Lamb put up 107 catches on 156 targets for 1,359 yards and nine TDs. Reports from camp are that he’s been continuing where he left off and is primed to run it back.
A couple of spots where he could climb from that WR6 finish are deep passes and TDs. TDs are finicky year to year, but top WRs can put up outlier totals, and without Ezekiel Elliott in town, the Cowboys might throw more in the red zone. Lamb has plenty of speed to get loose downfield but didn’t have a 40+ yard reception in 2022.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown is currently going as WR8 despite finishing 2022 as WR5 and is an interesting option for managers. The Eagles averaged a whopping 18.5 ppg in the first halves of games, three ppg more than the second-place Chiefs. The second half was a different story, as Philadelphia dropped to just 10.6 ppg as they took their foot off the gas.
Imagine if the defense takes a step back in 2023 after losing a bunch of pieces. Now maybe they’ll have to play harder in the second half, and Brown can have a bigger role. Plus, none of the RBs on this roster are Miles Sanders — they might have to pass more as Hurts grows. Feels like a discrepancy worth exploiting if possible.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown might still somehow be underrated despite currently going as a Round 2 pick. Everyone is on to Jamaal Williams as a massive outlier in 2022 with his 17 TDs. Typically something like that happens due to another weird stat. Something less discussed? St. Brown was tackled in the 5-yard line SEVEN times in 2022.
That’s right; on top of his 146 targets, 106 catches, 1,161 yards, and six TDs, he easily could’ve added another 5-6 TDs. St. Brown was targeted 21 times in the red zone, good for eighth-best among WRs. St. Brown has an easy path to build off his WR8 finish.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard is likely to be there at 14, but in certain scenarios, he’s a reasonable pick here. Despite Ezekiel Elliott posting 231 carries and 23 targets, Pollard still finished 2022 as RB7. No offense to guys like Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, but those players should not see that type of work, putting more onto Pollard’s plate.
Elliott also played more early in 2022. From Week 8 on (after Elliott got injured), Pollard averaged the third-most half-PPR points among all RBs. Pollard’s ADP has never caught up to his outlook without Elliott, as he’s in line for a massive top-five season with RB1 overall potential.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
The lowest ADP player to discuss here is Garrett Wilson, but again, he’s a shot at elite upside. The splits with and without Zach Wilson at QB are well documented. Garrett Wilson scored 8.6 PPR points with Zach vs. 17.2 points with any other QB. It’s not like Joe Flacco is close to the QB that Aaron Rodgers is, either.
Give Wilson his 147 targets from Rodgers, and the numbers are going to look drastically different. For one, Rodgers is already showing great chemistry in the red zone with Wilson, as Wilson caught Rodgers’ only preseason TD on a back-shoulder fade, invoking memories of Davante Adams. Wilson might be the latest realistic shot at the WR1 overall in drafts.
Who Should Go No. 11 Overall?
All those players highlighted are fantastic options, so what it comes down to is how to start a draft. Picking 11 and 14, ideally, you can walk away with at least one WR. One of St. Brown and Wilson, almost by default, has to fall to 14. If the top of the draft falls in the manner highlighted, the best bet is to start with A.J. Brown or CeeDee Lamb.
Hopefully, you know how the person picking 12th will draft, as that’s a huge insight. This season, going with two RBs there isn’t ideal, so drafting the WR forces them to pick the other WR and either Chubb or Pollard. At that point, the other RB is a smash at 14 with a solid, balanced build to start drafts.
The elephant in the room is the re-aggravation of Cooper Kupp’s hamstring. Kupp may well fall, in which case whichever spot only has one player left of Lamb, Brown, Pollard, and Chubb is where to start at 11. This forces the person after you to decide on Kupp, as well as if they want to take the same spot twice to start.
At 14, Kupp might be worth the gamble, but ask yourself this: Am I comfortable if Kupp misses multiple early weeks? Pivoting to St. Brown or Wilson at 14 might be the smarter, safer bet there. It would possibly bring Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs into consideration at 14, too, if all the RBs highlighted are gone after taking a WR at 11.
Who Should You Draft in Other Slots?
Have another league where you’re drafting in a different slot? Want to see what options might be available before or after your pick? We have you covered.
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- Who Should Be the 12th Pick?