Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tee Higgins is one of just three real-life WR2s that fantasy managers believe has fantasy WR1 upside. In a consolidated offense with an elite QB, Higgins has proven he deserves that title. Should fantasy football managers draft Higgins at his ADP this season?
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Tee Higgins’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
When the Bengals drafted Higgins in 2020, there is no doubt in my mind they envisioned him as their WR1 of the future. The only reason he’s not is because Ja’Marr Chase fell into their laps the very next season.
While Chase’s presence undoubtedly caps Higgins’ upside, that doesn’t mean Higgins can’t be a fantasy WR1. After all, he did it in 2021 when he averaged 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR12.
Last year, Higgins appeared to regress. He only averaged 13.8 ppg, finishing as the WR19. His target share dropped from 23.9% to just 18.6%, and his yards per route run dropped from 2.43 to 2.09. To cap it all off, he only ran a route on 81% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks.
On the surface, those numbers, among others, look concerning. But a deeper dive shows a player much better than the final stats suggest.
Higgins technically played in 16 games last season, but in actuality, he only played in 13. He left Week 1 after just 26% of the snaps, Week 5 after 19% of the snaps, and Week 14 after just 2% of the snaps.
In those games, Higgins scored a total of 4.7 fantasy points. If we subtract that number from Higgins’ total fantasy points and then average it out over 13 games, we get 16.6 ppg. Well, well, well. As it turns out, Higgins was actually better in 2022 than he was in 2021. 16.6 ppg would’ve been good for a WR11 finish.
The Bengals continue to run a pass-first offense. Cincinnati threw the ball 61% of the time in neutral game script last season. They also have a consolidated offense, with the bulk of the touches running through Chase, Higgins, and Joe Mixon.
Historical data proves that we want real-life WR1s in fantasy football, as those players represent the vast majority of fantasy WR1s. But there are exceptions. This year, Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith are those exceptions. What do those three have in common? Elite offenses that score a ton of points.
Is Higgins a Good Fantasy Pick?
Higgins’ ADP sits at WR14, No. 30 overall. This season, there is a clear top 14 at wide receiver. According to ADP, as well as our PFN consensus rankings, Higgins is the last of that group.
I mostly agree. Higgins is my WR13, ahead of Smith. He and Smith represent the final two in the larger group of dependable WRs. Once you get past those two, things get a bit less certain.
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My top 11 WRs are all the WR1s for their NFL teams. I would not take Higgins ahead of them, and I also have Waddle firmly ahead of Higgins. But once those guys are gone, Higgins is a very viable pick at the Round 2/3 turn.
If anything, Higgins may be a bit undervalued in light of the disparity between what his final numbers from last season look like and what reality was. Do not shy away from him in 2023 fantasy drafts.