Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco won an incredible uphill battle as a seventh-round rookie to become the team’s lead runner last season. He now enters his sophomore year as the clear lead back. Should fantasy football managers draft Pacheco at his ADP this season?
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Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
What Pacheco was able to accomplish as a seventh-round rookie is nothing short of impressive. He was fighting to even make the team, let alone earn playing time. By midseason, he became the Chiefs’ lead back.
On the surface, Pacheco’s 7.9 PPR fantasy points per game is nothing to write home about. But, like anything, it must be analyzed in the proper context.
Pacheco was nothing more than a seldom-used backup for the first half of the season. He averaged a sub-25% snap share from Weeks 1-9. It wasn’t until Week 10 that he crested the 50% snap threshold.
From Weeks 10-18, Pacheco averaged 11.7 ppg. While that’s nothing special, those are weekly RB3 numbers. He topped double-digit fantasy points in seven of those nine games. Pacheco wasn’t winning you matchups, but he provided a reliable floor in your lineup.
Now, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Pacheco’s rookie season. While his 4.9 yards per carry was impressive, his 14.8% evaded tackles per touch rate was outside the top 50. Just 4.7% of his carries went for 15+ yards. His 2.08 yards created per touch was outside the top 45.
Pacheco runs violently and is aesthetically pleasing to watch, but I don’t think he would be viewed as favorably if he didn’t enter the season with such low expectations.
Heading into the 2023 season, Pacheco appears to be the team’s lead back, but he will only contribute on the ground. Last season, Pacheco saw just a 2.3% target share, as Jerick McKinnon remains the passing down back.
There’s also the matter of Pacheco’s injury status. He’s fully expected to be ready for Week 1, but his shoulder injury has given Clyde Edwards-Helaire a chance to run with the first team in practice.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that CEH earns his way back into the team’s good graces. As good as Pacheco was, the team has no allegiance to him. They would probably prefer if the former first-rounder was able to reclaim the starting job.
Now, I don’t think CEH will do so. He’s just not that good of a player. The possibility is just a stark reminder of the fragile job security of any non-elite running back.
Is Pacheco a Good Fantasy Pick?
Pacheco is going off the board as the RB27, No. 71 overall. That’s two spots ahead of my RB29 ranking and three spots ahead of where we have him in our PFN consensus rankings.
Ultimately, Pacheco is not the type of player I am trying to acquire.
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Of course, it is always appealing to get a piece of Patrick Mahomes’ offense, but fantasy managers have been chasing the ghost of Kareem Hunt since the team moved on from him in 2018.
Pacheco is going to be a relatively touchdown-dependent RB2, at best. But even his goal line work is not guaranteed, as McKinnon was effective in that area last season. As a result, Pacheco is not someone I’m keen on drafting this season.