New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season while with the Detroit Lions. He now looks to assume a similar role as the early-down grinder and goal-line back with the Saints. Should fantasy football managers draft Williams at his ADP this season?
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Jamaal Williams’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
There is nothing fancy or exciting about Williams. He’s not fast. He’s not athletic. He doesn’t catch passes. Yet, he’s been a fantasy-relevant player for pretty much his entire career.
Prior to last season, Williams had never finished above RB34. He’d also never scored more than six touchdowns in a season or touched the ball more than 180 times.
In 2022, Williams was the stabilizing force in the Lions backfield. He carried the ball 262 times for 1,066 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns. All of those were, by far, career highs.
Williams’ performance was not enough to earn him an extension with the Lions, though. He now continues his career with the Saints, where he will presumably occupy the same role.
Alvin Kamara will transition back to his more natural passing-down role while mixing in for what should be 8-10 carries a game. Williams will handle the grunt work and likely the goal-line touches. Rookie Kendre Miller is probably a year away. He will be a younger, more explosive version of Williams when he takes over.
Williams will remain a plodder. Last season, his yards per touch, evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, and 15+ carry rate were all outside the top 50. He eats volume. Nothing more.
As a result, we know Williams doesn’t have any real fantasy ceiling. Even if he were to see 15 carries a game again, he’s not scoring 17 touchdowns. If Williams only scored 10 times last season, his ppg average would’ve dropped from 13.3 to 10.9 — much closer to what we’ve come to expect from him.
That is the real issue with Williams’ fantasy value. He’s just a two-down plodder who gets what’s blocked. He is only ever going to be fantasy-viable on a given week when he falls into the end zone. And I truly mean falls into the end zone. An astonishing 13 of his touchdowns came from 1-2 yards out.
I do expect the Saints to have a quality offense. It won’t be as good as the Lions were last year, but it should still provide Williams with plenty of scoring opportunities. He will have fantasy value.
Is Williams a Good Fantasy Pick?
With Kamara suspended for the first three games of the season, Williams is going to open as an every-week RB2. He’s still not going to catch passes, but 17-20 carries and goal-line work will be there.
After Kamara returns, Williams’ value obviously takes a hit. We are still going to see him plenty, but the touch count will inevitably drop. Plus, we can’t be certain Williams will come in for Kamara inside the 5-yard line every time.
Williams wasn’t actually good in short-yardage situations. According to Inside Edge, Williams was stuffed 14 times in short-yardage situations in the 2022 season — tied for most among NFL RBs. His performance was the epitome of hammering away at a wall until it breaks.
Williams’ ADP sits at RB35, No. 102 overall. I do not dislike Williams, but evidently, I am down on him based on my RB42 ranking. PFN Fantasy Football Director Kyle Yates and I are both responsible for his RB37 rank in our PFN consensus rankings.
Ultimately, I prefer upside when drafting RB4s and RB5s. It took Williams 17 touchdowns to merely finish as a mid-RB2. He now has more backfield competition and is on a worse offense.
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Plus, he has a more talented rookie breathing down his neck. I know I said 2024 is probably when Miller takes over, but there’s a nonzero chance it could be during the second half of this season.
As a result, I am probably not going to roster much of Williams this season. But by no means is he a bad pick at cost.