Dawson Knox has been a sneaky fantasy football option at an impossible-to-fill position in consecutive years, but the Buffalo Bills elected to draft Dalton Kincaid in April. We know rookie TEs have an extended learning curve at the professional level, but are we casting Knox aside too quickly?
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Dawson Knox’s Fantasy Outlook
Knox is proof that touching an elite offense is sometimes all you need to hold fantasy value. Not once over the past two seasons has Knox been projected anywhere near the top tier of targets at the position, and yet, his 15 touchdowns made him an asset for those who punted on the position in their draft.
As valuable as he has been at little cost over the past few seasons, that run could come to a screeching halt in 2023 after the Bills spent the 25th overall pick on Kincaid (70 catches for Utah last season).
Of course, it is worth noting that Knox is just 26 years old, but it’s tough to overlook Kincaid’s prospect profile compared to Knox’s and assume anything but the rookie out-targeting him in short order.
if this is how the bills plan on deploying their rookie TE, absent injury it’s going to be a long season for the fade Dalton Kincaid crowd. very long. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/QDkZL4HRt8
— Ray G (@RayGQue) August 20, 2023
The passing game will, again, revolve around Stefon Diggs as long as he is happy enough to be with the team. He’s been a volume magnet since joining the team (100+ catches in every season), and his connection with Josh Allen is potent. We here at PFN are in on the Gabe Davis payoff season, so there are only so many high-value targets left to chase.
Gone is Devin Singletary, with James Cook being elevated to a feature role. The second-year back showed well all summer and is a threat out of the backfield, giving Allen one more option in this pass-centric offense.
Is Knox a Good Fantasy Pick?
I’m passing. Yes, I understand that rookie TEs often struggle, but just the presence of another option at the position is enough to have me looking elsewhere. If you’ve waited this long, players like Hayden Hurst and Tyler Conklin are more appealing (or less unappealing) to me.
In a deep Best Ball setting, maybe. Maybe. At that point in that format, you’re chasing a piece of this offense … and there is no denying that this offense is among the elite. Outside of that instance, you can do better.
- PFN Consensus Rank: 191st overall
- Current ADP: 197th overall