Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins enters his third NFL season with the inside track to the team’s WR1 role. Saddled with a rookie quarterback and a weak offense, is there anything here for fantasy? Should fantasy football managers draft Collins at his ADP this season?
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Nico Collins’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Collins has been a surprisingly popular breakout pick for two years now. I’ve never understood why. What exactly does Collins have going for him?
Let’s start with the talent profile. At 6’4″, 215 pounds, Collins looks like a true outside clasher. He has great size, and his 4.50 speed is elite for someone as big as him.
Collins spent four years at college and wasn’t particularly productive or dominant. He entered the NFL and it was more of the same. As a Day 2 pick, we hold him to the 500-yard threshold for rookie-year production. He didn’t get there, falling short by 54 yards — and he didn’t get there last season, either.
Collins now enters his third season with under 1,000 receiving yards for his career. He was only able to command a 19.1% target share last season. However, he was targeted on 27.3% of his routes run (27th in the league).
There’s no sense in analyzing Collins’ efficiency metrics — they weren’t good. He was also victimized by league-worst quarterback play from Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor.
This year, Collins gets a QB upgrade in C.J. Stroud. Still, Stroud is a rookie. As the Fantasy Footballers pointed out, 70% of rookie quarterbacks since 2004 have failed to support even a single top-36 wide receiver. And no rookie QB has ever supported two top-40 options.
The Texans signed Robert Woods, have a returning de facto rookie John Metchie III, and drafted the impressive Tank Dell in the third round. This is also an entirely new coaching staff with no allegiance to Collins.
Is Collins a Good Fantasy Pick?
Collins’ ADP sits at WR62, No. 177 overall. I am not high on Collins at all — he’s ranked at WR55 for me, which is three spots lower than where he lands in the PFN Consensus Rankings.
I’ll take a shot on any player with upside at the right price. There’s at least a chance Collins can manage a top-48 finish. But a top-36 finish is less likely in his range of outcomes.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty WR Rankings
Of course, no one going as late as Collins will likely finish anywhere near the top 48. There are players with higher ceilings in better situations, and those are the guys to target, not Collins.
Even though my ranking is ahead of consensus on Collins, he is not someone I’ve ever found myself drafting.