The Green Bay Packers are entering a new era with Jordan Love. This will be their first season since 1991 without Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Are the Packers entering a rebuild, or will they be a surprise playoff team in 2023? We break it down in this betting preview, with their futures odds, best bets, and more.
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Green Bay Packers Futures Odds
Super Bowl Odds: +6500
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-futures/topic:super-bowl-winner/variant:1/sportsbook:draftkings?id=4606eedb-d2c6-471d-9ebe-73862f65a723″]NFC Odds: +3000
NFC South Odds: +400
Win Total: 7.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +180/-210
Green Bay Packers Offense Breakdown
The success of this unit in 2023 is largely dependent on Love. Having three years to back up Rodgers and learn Matt LaFleur’s offense, how good will he be? Love showed some flashes in the Sunday Night Football game against the Eagles last season and is known for having a very strong arm, but he is still completely unproven.
The Packers still have one of the best running back tandems in the NFL in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. With Rodgers gone and LaFleur having more influence on the offense, we should expect this offense to be more run-heavy, especially with the inexperienced Love under center.
At wide receiver, the Packers have a very young duo in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Watson was sensational as a rookie, including a four-week stretch in which he had seven touchdowns. Romeo Doubs had a less productive rookie season, finishing with 42 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns.
The Packers added two skill-position players on Day 2 of the NFL Draft: WR Jayden Reed and TE Luke Musgrave, both second-round draft picks. Reed and Musgrave are joining one of the youngest offenses in the NFL this season.
Green Bay Packers Defense Breakdown
To the dismay of Rodgers, the Packers have heavily invested in their defense over the years in the draft. This season, they’re slated to have six first-round draft picks starting on defense.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Packers continued to invest highly in their defense by selecting DE Lukas Van Ness with the 13th pick. Van Ness will provide pass-rushing depth for a defense that finished with just 34 sacks last season, including just two players recording more than five.
Last season, the Packers defense was an average unit, finishing 17th in yards allowed per game as well as points allowed per game. Their biggest weakness defensively was stopping the run, as they conceded the 26th most rushing yards per game and were 31st in rushing defense success rate.
Green Bay’s defense is strongest in the secondary and is led by CB Jaire Alexander. Last year, Alexander was named second-team All-Pro for the first time since the 2020 season.
One Betting Trend To Know
Who needs a Frozen Tundra? The Packers are 5-1 against the spread over the past two seasons when playing in warm weather, according to Inside Edge.
Best Bet for the Packers in 2023
Blewis: Watson was a surprise standout as a rookie as Rodgers’ no. 1 option. Even despite Rodgers having a down year for his standards, I’m expecting Love to be a downgrade at quarterback. With a young and inexperienced signal-caller, the Packers may lean more on their running game with Jones and Dillon.
Watson is also due for some massive regression in receiving touchdowns this upcoming season. All seven of his TDs last year came in a four-week stretch, including one game with three scores vs. the Cowboys and a garbage-time TD against the Eagles.
Nearly 11% of his targets went for touchdowns last season, a number that I would be shocked to see him come even semi-close to replicating this upcoming season. Christian Watson under 5.5 receiving touchdowns (-134 on FanDuel).
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/tile/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-player-futures/topic:christian-watson-2023-24-regular-season-total-receiving-t-ds/variant:1/sportsbook:fanduel?id=707bb515-c41d-40a5-912c-18756e11726d”]Katz: This is an awfully high number for a running back who is going to see under 10% of his team’s goal-line carries. Sure, if Dillon gets hurt, this bet is probably cooked.
But if he doesn’t, the only way Jones has any prayer of reaching six rushing scores is if he busts some long touchdown runs.
Jones scored seven touchdowns last season and 10 the year before. Of his 17 touchdowns in the past two seasons, 11 have come via the air. Last season, Jones had three carries inside the 5-yard line.
He hasn’t come close to six rushing touchdowns since he ran for nine back in 2020. He’s 29 years old. Rodgers is gone. I love this bet. Aaron Jones under 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-130).