The Detroit Lions decided to let RB Jamaal Williams leave via free agency after scoring 17 rushing TDs in 2022. But they signed David Montgomery as a potential replacement. The problem is the Lions selected dynamic RB Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. So who will be the highest scoring fantasy football RB in Detroit this season? Let’s take a closer look.
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David Montgomery’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
The Detroit Lions’ backfield looks completely different than last season — that is not an understatement.
With the departure of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, the Lions have 421 total touches, which produced 2,070 total yards and 25 TDs, no longer in the picture for the 2023 season.
David Montgomery arrives in Detroit with a proven track record of three-down production in the NFL. He has finished with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and seen 200+ carries every season of his four-year career.
Then there is Jahmyr Gibbs, who is a TD waiting to happen every time he touches the ball. He was a hyper-efficient, dynamic playmaker as a runner and pass-catching threat in college.
So, what are we to make of this situation?
Montgomery has a proven NFL pedigree, while Gibbs has the dynamic skills to be a fantasy star right out of the gates.
Gibbs’ draft capital in the top half of the first round certainly suggests the Lions have big plans for him in this offense. However, Montgomery is being overlooked by those on the Gibbs hype train.
Gibbs wasn’t exactly a high-volume player during his collegiate career — never seeing 200 total touches in any season — and wasn’t particularly used as a goal-line hammer in goal-to-go situations.
Furthermore, the Lions used Swift, who possesses some of the same skills that makes Gibbs such an exciting prospect, sparingly in the rushing game but heavily in the passing game. In fact, Swift saw a career-low 99 carries in 2022.
If there is a back that projects as the leading ball carrier and short-yardage thumper currently on the Lions’ roster, it is David Montgomery.
Williams saw 262 carries last year, 57 of which came in the red zone last season. While Williams was great last year, Montgomery still finished with more broken tackles and a higher rushing yards after contact per attempt than Williams in 2022.
With Montgomery’s effectiveness as a physical, early-down RB, is it really that far-fetched to think the roles may look similar in 2023?
The one aspect that may be flying under the radar as well is Montgomery’s ability to catch passes out of the backfield.
Dane Belton straight up stripped that 😳 pic.twitter.com/c09Lg4MBTY
— New York Giants (@Giants) August 9, 2023
Dane Belton took Montgomery’s lunch money on this rep, but it’s still worth noting that Montgomery is catching screen passes from Jared Goff with live reps.
Sure, Gibbs is projected to catch more passes than Montgomery this season, but it’s just wishful thinking that Montgomery isn’t going to factor into the passing game, seeing that he has averaged 38 receptions a year during his career.
Is Montgomery a Good Fantasy Pick?
The Lions’ backfield is a hotly debated topic in the fantasy football world at the moment.
Gibbs is a highly efficient, explosive, playmaking option that has a top-five fantasy ceiling if the situation is ideal.
The problem is… it isn’t an ideal situation for Gibbs in 2023. Montgomery is going to be a real thorn in the side of Gibbs shareholders, similar to how Williams was last year for Swift investors.
Gibbs may have a top-five ceiling, but Montgomery has already proven he has a top-five fantasy ceiling with RB4 finish in PPR formats back in 2020.
Montgomery isn’t likely to score 17 rushing TDs this season, but with 200+ carries in an offense that is projected to be among the highest scoring units in the league, his chances for double-digit TDs this season is definitely within the range of outcomes.
His current ADP makes him a great target in the middle rounds on draft day.
- PFN Consensus Rankings: 54th overall
- ADP: 75th overall