Ezekiel Elliott turned 28 years old this summer, but his years are closer to dog years in evaluating age as he has 2,300 NFL touches on his résumé. The New England Patriots have a history of bringing in veterans and squeezing value out of them, but I have some serious concerns about Zeke’s fantasy football value in 2023.
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT signed with the Bew England Patriots!@KyleSoppePFN breaks down what it means for fantasy football right here! ⤵️https://t.co/lfN6tlPNtD
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) August 14, 2023
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Ezekiel Elliott’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In each of the past two seasons, at least 40% of Elliott’s fantasy points have come in the red zone, something that I expect to continue in New England
Projection: 62 carries for 267 yards and 4.7 rushing TDs, 8 catches for 58 yards and 0.6 TDs
I mentioned the tread on Zeke’s tires, and that has me projecting his workload to not challenge that of Rhamondre Stevenson. That said, his usage figures to come within spitting distance of the goal line, a role that stands to limit Stevenson’s value more than provide him with any standalone value of his own.
Despite the wide range in touch count (I have Stevenson flirting with 300 touches), I have these two backs just about even in the touchdown department. That was the issue for Stevenson last season (six scores on 279 touches), and I fear that it struggles to rebound in an offense that ranked 28th in red-zone trips a season ago.
Should You Draft Elliott This Year?
C’mon now. Zeke is nothing more than a bye-week filler that you are praying falls into the end zone if you were backed into a corner enough to start him. I view him in the same vein as a boom/bust receiver like Donovan Peoples-Jones or Rashid Shaheed, players that I like but are ones that you’re hoping for the best on a few high-value targets.
Stevenson has fallen out of the RB1 conversation for me as a result of this move but remains a top-15 option at the position thanks to the floor that his role in the passing game provides. The Patriots are on the short list of teams that I will have next to zero exposure to entering 2023 redraft leagues.