Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is widely considered the second-best QB in the NFL. But of the top fantasy QBs, he is the one with the least rushing upside. He’s also recovering from an early training camp calf strain that cost him the entire preseason. Should fantasy football managers draft Burrow at his ADP this season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Joe Burrow’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Burrow has played three NFL seasons and has improved in each and every one. Over the past two seasons, Burrow has crested the 20-fantasy-point-per-game threshold. He was at 20.5 in 2021 and 22.7 last year.
In a different time, Burrow would probably be the best quarterback in fantasy football. He is on an elite offense with two WR1s in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals love to throw. Their 65% neutral game script pass rate led the league last season.
Burrow is incredibly accurate, with one of the best deep balls in the league. And he’s a near lock for 4,500 yards and 35+ touchdowns.
If anything, Burrow should’ve been even better last year. According to Inside Edge, Burrow threw five balls that were dropped in the red zone in the last eight weeks of the regular season.
So, why is Burrow not even in consideration for the top three? And arguably not even top five? The answer, of course, is rushing.
Of the top nine fantasy QBs from last season, no one averaged fewer rushing yards per game than Burrow. Yet, he managed to average 4.3 ppg more than the next-worst rushing QB, Tua Tagovailoa.
In general, non-mobile quarterbacks tend to be low-end QB1s/high-end QB2s. Think Tua, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and surprisingly given his early career rushing, Dak Prescott. Burrow’s ability to crack the top five despite lacking rushing upside is impressive.
Is Burrow a Good Fantasy Pick?
All things being equal, Burrow is about as safe of a pick as you can make. But all things are not equal. Burrow strained his calf early in training camp and missed the entire preseason (not that he was going to play anyway).
I’ve gone on record saying I expect Burrow to miss the first 2-3 weeks of the season. That is, of course, no guarantee, and pure speculation on my part. It’s also not nearly enough to seriously downgrade him in my rankings.
But even if Burrow is ready for Week 1, calf strains are tricky. He has a higher risk of reinjury than he would had he not gotten hurt in the first place. Again, it’s not going to push me off of Burrow, but it’s at least something fantasy managers must consider in drafts.
Burrow’s ADP is at QB5. He’s fallen behind Lamar Jackson, which, to be fair, may not have anything to do with his calf. I have Burrow at QB5 as well, but I am considering dropping him behind Justin Herbert, who is my QB6. In fact, the PFN Consensus Rankings have Burrow at QB7, behind Herbert and Justin Fields.
As long as Burrow is playing, he will never fail you. But if you want that game-breaking ceiling, you need a QB with rushing upside. With that said, show interest in taking Burrow, especially if you can get him in the middle to late portions of the fourth round. But if you want overall QB1 upside beyond the big three, Jackson, Herbert, and Fields are more likely to provide that than Burrow.