Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is already one of the best wide receivers in football. There is no question he is a fantasy WR1. The only question is whether he can be the WR1. Should fantasy football managers draft Chase at his ADP this season?
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Ja’Marr Chase’s Fantasy Outlook For the 2023 NFL Season
There’s no need to wax poetic about Chase’s football ability. He’s really, really good at it. Chase averaged 17.9 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie, finishing as the WR5. As a sophomore, he cracked the 20-point barrier, averaging 20.2 ppg and finishing as the WR4.
Last season, Chase truly established himself as an alpha, firmly ahead of Tee Higgins. While Higgins is very much capable of being an alpha himself, this is no longer a 1A/1B situation like it was in 2021. Chase’s 29.3% target share cemented that.
Where Chase really grew last year was in the red zone. He saw just 12 red-zone targets as a rookie. That went up to 26 last season, despite him playing only 12 games. According to Inside Edge, Chase was targeted six times in the red zone in the last four weeks of the season, tied for fourth-most among WRs.
There are only a handful of WRs with elite game-breaking upside. No one would ever project any player for 24+ ppg. But Chase is certainly capable of having a season like that.
Is Chase a Good Fantasy Pick?
Until recently, there was a legitimate argument for Chase as the No. 1 overall pick, ahead of Justin Jefferson. I’ve had Chase as my WR2 since I first did my rankings back in May. He’s also the PFN consensus WR2. But I wouldn’t criticize anyone for putting Chase ahead of Jefferson…until now.
With a WR2 and No. 3 overall ADP, we are splitting hairs at the top. Therefore, any clear negative has to tip the scales in favor of the other guy.
Zac Taylor has not provided any updates on Burrow’s strained calf. I do not think Burrow will miss the entire regular season or a significant portion of the year. However, Chase’s comments about wanting Burrow to take care of his calf and ensure he’s ready to go by Week 5 must be taken seriously.
Players are notoriously optimistic about injury recovery timelines. They also seldom give seemingly negative perspectives on injuries. I understand where Chase is coming from. He dealt with a hip issue that he tried to play through last season, which negatively impacted his play. He wants his QB to make sure he’s 100%. I think the Bengals share that outlook.
I don’t necessarily think Burrow will miss the first four weeks of the season, but I expect him to miss the first two or three games. Obviously, we will not significantly downgrade a player of Chase’s caliber because his QB is absent for a small portion of the season. But that is enough to solidify that Chase should no longer be in consideration to go ahead of Jefferson.
I did not move Chase down in my rankings. I would still take him No. 2 overall. But unless we get news that Burrow is playing Week 1, I will take the also-super-elite guy not missing a couple of weeks of his starting QB at No. 1.