Courtland Sutton has struggled to live up to his draft status (second-round pick in 2018), scoring just four times over the past two seasons (32 games played). All hope is not lost, however, as the Denver Broncos brought in Sean Payton to revamp the worst-scoring offense in the league. Will Sutton be a viable fantasy football option in 2023?
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Courtland Sutton’s Fantasy Outlook
In his first season with the Broncos, Russell Wilson authored the worst season of his career (16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on his 483 attempts), and it looked worse than the numbers even suggest.
All talk out of Denver is that Wilson (34 years old) still has plenty left in the tank and that Payton is the type of offensive mind that can turn things around.
Sutton will again be joined by Jerry Jeudy as the focal points of this passing game, even more so now than when OTA’s started in July. Since then, Tim Patrick has torn his Achilles, and K.J. Hamler is no longer with the team.
Marvin Mims Jr. (2023 second-round pick) is the next man up at the receiver position, and he showed upside at Oklahoma last season (20.1 yards per catch), but there is no question as to where the majority of the targets in this offense are being funneled.
Regardless of the role out of the gate for Javonte Williams on his way back from a torn ACL, the Broncos backfield will have a viable threat in the passing game. Samaje Perine, career-high 38 catches last season, came over from Cincinnati and is a viable fill-in option as Williams works his way up to speed.
Can This Offense Support Two Fantasy Receivers?
Payton made waves this summer in calling out Nathaniel Hackett and everyone attached to the 2022 Broncos coaching staff: “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.” Well, if Payton is going to change everything in town, sign me up for both Jeudy and Sutton!
Percentage of Career Games With Under 15 Fantasy Points:
- Jeudy: 83%
- Sutton: 80%
There is no denying the talent of these two, but they simply haven’t been put in a position to succeed. With Payton at the controls and Wilson more comfortable, the hope is that both can offer up career years.
The good news is that a single roster sustaining multiple top-30 receivers isn’t as difficult as you might assume … there were eight teams who did it in 2022 (SF, CIN, TB, LAC, MIA, PHI, JAX, and SEA). The key, as you’d expect, is volume. Of those tandems, the 49ers duo of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were the only ones who combined for fewer than 15.3 looks per game.
Last season, Jeudy and Sutton combined for 14 targets per game.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Sutton at His ADP?
My colleagues are high on Jeudy, and I don’t think they are wrong, but current ADPs reflect a certainty in the hierarchy in Denver. Sutton is going some four rounds later than his teammate — an awfully big gap for an offense that is expected to experience a complete overhaul.
At cost, you’re not drafting Sutton as a starter, and that makes him appealing to me. To a degree, you’re embracing the unknown, and I think that is sharp at this point in the draft. The risk is minimal, and his path to Day 1 upside is far superior to the other WRs being drafted in this range.