New Orleans Saints TE Juwan Johnson is coming off of his first season being used as a weapon in the passing game. In fact, he had 10 more catches last season than he had targets in his first two.
The Saints’ offense might have more upside than meets the eye, and Johnson seems to have carved out a nice niche in the short passing game. However, with a change under center, how does that impact Johnson’s volume, and what is his outlook for fantasy football in 2023?
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Juwan Johnson’s Fantasy Outlook
Johnson was New Orleans’ second-leading receiver last season, but there’s no shortage of moving pieces in 2023. Derek Carr assumes the starting quarterback role after nearly a decade with the Raiders, a change that should only increase the stability in this passing game.
Johnson isn’t Darren Waller, and his role is different, but it’s worth noting that Waller posted consecutive seasons with over 1,100 yards under Carr.
Chris Olave (3+ deep targets in the majority of his games) and Rashid Shaheed (17.4 yards per catch) are a pair of developing deep threats that should create plenty of room for Johnson to operate. The three-game suspension of Alvin Kamara also serves as a short-term boost to the available targets around the line of scrimmage.
Michael Thomas has played just 10 games over the past three seasons, but all signs point to him being ready to roll for the opener, and that complicates Johnson’s projections a bit. For his career, Thomas has seen 64.4% of his targets come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Of course, none of those numbers came with Carr under center, and the same is true for him scoring nine times in three of four healthy seasons.
How Does the Change at QB Impact Johnson?
The shift from Jameis Winston to Carr seems like a 180-degree turn, but I’m not so sure that it is. Yes, Winston is a YOLO quarterback that is willing to make the big mistake for the chance at a big reward, but let’s not overlook Carr’s growth.
Derek Carr aDOT
- 2018-19: 6.38 yards
- 2020-21: 7.78 yards
- 2022: 8.73 yards
Due to the size of tight ends and where they line up on the field, they naturally come with a lower average depth of target than receivers. But the Saints did explore with running Johnson downfield last season. In fact, among the 29 tight ends with at least 50 targets in 2022, Johnson ranked fifth in aDOT — a sign that he could capitalize on Carr’s development.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Johnson at His ADP?
Johnson is being drafted as the TE19, which is behind where he finished last season (half-PPR points per game, minimum 10 games). To me, that’s the industry not believing in Johnson, and I am happy to take full advantage if I didn’t land a tight end in the first half of the draft.
More than happy.
Last season, there were 29 tight ends who ran at least 20 routes per game. When Johnson hit that threshold, he gave you 9.7 ppg, an average that would have ranked as the TE7 if extended for the entire season.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
Last season, there were 16 tight ends who saw at least five targets per game. When Johnson hit that threshold, he gave you 12.1 ppg, an average that would have had him ranked as the TE3 if extended for the entire season.
So yes, as a 12th-round pick when others are gambling on handcuff running backs, backup quarterbacks, or lottery ticket receivers, I’ll smile at the opportunity to take my chances on Johnson.