Indianapolis Colts wideout Michael Pittman Jr. saw his role change last season in a limited offense under Matt Ryan, and it resulted in a season that featured very little upside. Things will look very different in Indy now with Florida’s Anthony Richardson bringing his rare athletic profile to town, but fantasy football managers are proceeding with caution when it comes to investing in his clear-cut WR1.
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Michael Pittman Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook
The Colts made one change to their offense this season, but it was a huge one. Richardson was selected with the fourth overall pick and will step in for Matt Ryan as the leader of this offense. To call those two quarterbacks “opposites” is undershooting things.
Richardson had three games last season with more than 95 rushing yards. Ryan has had under 95 rushing yards in three consecutive seasons. Richardson comes into the league with a rocket arm and wants to attack defenses vertically.
Down the stretch of his career, Ryan found success in out-thinking teams, no longer having the physical tools to stretch defenses. So yeah, a littttttttle different.
As for the skill players around Pittman, not much has changed. Jonathan Taylor returns and is looking for a bounce-back season, while Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods showed some potential during their rookie seasons. How the offensive line works with a brand new offensive scheme is an unknown, but PFN’s Dalton Miller has them ranked as a bottom-10 unit entering the season.
How Much Will the QB Change Impact Pittman?
Pittman had easily his most involved season (99 catches and 141 targets in 16 games), but the volume of looks came at the risk of upside. With Ryan under center, Pittman’s aDOT dropped by over 29% from 2021, and he went the entire season without a 30-yard reception.
Things are going to be different in 2023. Very Different. For better or worse, Richardson is a 180-degree turn from Ryan — no experience, big arm, and elite athletic tools.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
How you view Pittman’s range of outcomes relies on how you view Richardson as a prospect. In Jalen Hurts’ first full season, he supported a TE1 and a WR3 in addition to his elite running numbers.
On the flip side, no Bears players reached 550 receiving yards last season, with Justin Fields’ athleticism sapping all of the upside from this pass game. Of course, there is plenty of room in the middle of those two extremes, and given Pittman’s lack of target competition, I tend to think he’ll finish right around what he did last season (WR26, 12.0 ppg).
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Pittman Jr. at His ADP?
We are talking about a game of inches. Less than 2.0 ppg separated WR18 from WR31, and that is the zone Pittman finds himself in this offseason. I think it’s reasonable to think he finishes the season with a per-game ranking in that range, and that’s great, but the variance from week to week is not something I’m itching to get involved in with my fifth/sixth-round selection.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll happily take fliers on players I view as boom-or-bust options. I just don’t want to tie up this draft capital in a player I identify as such. Instead of drafting Pittman, give me Christian Kirk, George Pickens, or Brandon Aiyuk … receivers who I think will have a more narrow range of outcomes or a higher ceiling, if not both.
This really comes down to draft strategy. I’d rather have a WR3 who keeps me competitive than one with a rookie quarterback who will (again, for better or worse) determine my week.