Evan Engram was a first-round pick in 2017 and had a strong rookie performance for the New York Giants (64-722-6). However, Engram underachieved in the next four seasons, both in “real” life and in our fantasy football world. As a result, he signed a one-year, “prove it” deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars last March, and … well, he proved it.
By posting a 73-766-4 stat line last season (TE5 in total points, TE7 on a per-game basis), Engram earned a new three-year deal to stay as an important piece to this upward-trending offense.
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Evan Engram’s Fantasy Outlook
Calvin Ridley joins the active roster this season and has the fantasy community buzzing (myself included!). Is he in for a big season? I certainly think so, but I have it coming almost exclusively at the expense of Zay Jones (82-823-5 last season).
Next to Christian Kirk, Jones averaged over a red-zone look per game and had five double-digit target efforts. Ridley might do more in the Jones role than Jones did on a per-catch basis, but that is about where I have his usage settling in. That then bumps Jones down to the Marvin Jones role (roughly five targets per game).
All of that is to say that while Ridley adds talent to this receiving room, I’m not sure he’s taking food off of Engram’s plate. In fact, he may add to the quality of targets if the Jaguars take the step forward I expect and challenges to be a top-five scoring unit.
How at Risk Is Engram’s Target Volume in 2023?
On the plus side, the Jaguars’ pass rate in 2022 might be the lowest we see from them for the next decade. They ranked 17th (61%) in dropback percentage, a mark that ranked just behind the Rams and Patriots. That’s malpractice.
I have Trevor Lawrence set to make a massive jump this season and join the tier of elite NFL quarterbacks … guess who was atop the pass-rate standings in 2022? The Bucs, Chargers, Chiefs, and Bengals. Elite signal-callers across the board, and I’d be surprised if Jacksonville didn’t crack the top 10 this season.
If you’re investing in Engram, the player who scares me is Travis Etienne Jr. Etienne came into the NFL with a strong passing grade, and while he hauled in 77.8% of his targets last season, under three opportunities per game wasn’t what we had in mind.
Engram has never been a major touchdown threat (20 scores in 82 career games), so he can ill afford a significant dip in target rate.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Engram at His ADP?
Isn’t it amazing what quality targets can do? In his final two seasons in the Big Apple, Engram had a 6.3 aDOT and averaged a modest 4.3 yards per catch after the reception due to the passes thrown his way being less than accurate (case in point: 59.9% catch rate).
With the Jags last season, the aDOT was again 6.3, but his YAC spiked to 6.4 and his catch rate to 74.5%. Same player, same role in terms of route depth, but much more success.
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The volume will almost certainly drop in 2023, but I’m not sold the role does in a big way. The connection Engram showed with Lawrence was clear (72% catch rate on third down, teammates: 60.7%). And while Ridley’s addition has me regressing some of his numbers, Engram makes for a fine way to get cheap exposure to an offense I believe in.
Engram is currently going as an eighth-round pick (TE8), and that’s fair. For me, that’s the end of the second tier of fantasy tight ends … the end of the guys I’m comfortable drafting and locking into my starting lineup as long as they are healthy.