T.J. Hockenson was on a 100-catch pace after joining the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9 last season, and that was with Justin Jefferson leading the league in receiving yards per game (105.7) and ranking second in receptions (7.6) after the team added Hock.
As impressive as that run was, it was just 12 months ago that we were having this same conversation with Mark Andrews … and Travis Kelce went on to lead the position in scoring by over 100 PPR points. Are we chasing our tails, or is Hockenson a legitimate threat to the fantasy football king of the tight end spot?
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T.J. Hockenson’s Path to a TE1 Finish
I mentioned Hockenson’s pace with the Vikings, and that hints that he can at least keep up with Kelce in volume, something very few tight ends (or players in the NFL, for that matter) can claim. So that’s a good start.
The fact that he was able to earn targets/catches at such a high rate without it coming at the expense of Jefferson has me running hot on Hockenson’s sustainability. Both he and Travis Kelce played 10 regular-season games after Hockenson was dealt to the Vikings:
- Kelce: 351 routes, 92 targets (3 end zone), and 63 catches
- Hockenson: 362 routes, 86 targets (7 end zone), and 60 catches
Not too shabby. The problems are the two stats I left off of that comparison: yards and touchdowns. But … I can explain them away! Despite a similar aDOT in Minnesota as his time in Detroit, Hockenson’s yards-after-the-catch average was 29% lower. He could have all of a sudden lost his ability to run through tackles, or he could have been learning a new system and not fully comfortable operating at full speed.
As for the scores, that was a major concern for me until the team moved on from not only Adam Thielen but also Dalvin Cook. After acquiring Hockenson, here were the target shares inside the 25-yard line.
- Jefferson: 27.3%
- Thielen: 22.1%
- Hockenson: 20.8%
- Cook: 11.7%
The team did bring in Jordan Addison, and he will surely pick up some of the slack left by the two departures, but not all of it. Alexander Mattison isn’t nearly the threat out of the backfield that Cook is, which leaves Hockenson in a projected growth spot when this offense is in scoring position.
It is worth noting that Jefferson had his fair share of efficiency issues on these targets (57.1% catch rate, teammates: 67.9%) due to the attention paid to him.
Teams aren’t going to devote fewer resources to slowing him anytime soon, and that should put Hockenson in position to score much more often than he did last season (three TDs in 10 games).
Unseating Kelce is going to require some luck, and hey, I took an online meteorology class in college, so let’s give this a spin. After Thanksgiving, the Vikings have one game that could carry weather issues (Week 15 at CIN). Outside of that game, they play nothing but indoor games that will be perfect scoring conditions.
On the other hand, the Chiefs have December games in Lambeau and Foxborough, not to mention their home games carry a level of weather concerns.
If Hockenson can keep this thing tight through the first three months, he could receive a bump from Mother Nature down the stretch.
Why Travis Kelce Can’t Be Topped
This section feels simple. He’s Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes is still his quarterback. If you know me, you know I’ll make it more complicated, but the general argument is simple … nothing has changed, and until Kelce shows any sign of bending the knee to Father Time, we can’t blindly assume that he will.
Since 2016, we’ve seen a tight end score 10 times in a season in which he caught at least 70 balls three times:
- 2018: Travis Kelce
- 2020: Travis Kelce
- 2022: Travis Kelce
And you know what? He reached 100 catches in all three of those seasons. I just dropped the qualifier to 70 to prove a point. The Chiefs refuse to add an alpha receiver, and Andy Reid is never going to stop scheming, so where is the risk?
Kelce has missed two games over the past five seasons, so even the “he’s getting older and is more of a health risk” narrative is thin at best. Taylor Swift has been the only force strong enough to deny Kelce, and there’s nothing in the NFL that can match her impact. That’s a fact.
Final Verdict
Can Hock pull this off? Sure, there’s a nonzero chance, but I’m not sure it really matters because you’re not being asked to draft under that assumption. The Vikings star is going three rounds later than Kelce, and that is where the value lies. By early ADPs, here is a potential runout for a team that goes Kelce (7th overall pick, 12-team draft) and a team that lands Hockenson at cost (42nd overall pick, a pick that goes to the team picking at the No. 5 slot):
Team 1
RB: Josh Jacobs (2nd round)
RB: Kenneth Walker (4th round)
WR: Chris Olave (3rd round)
TE: Travis Kelce (1st round)
Team 2
RB: Tony Pollard (2nd round)
RB: Najee Harris (3rd round)
WR: Stefon Diggs (1st round)
TE: T.J. Hockenson (4th round)
Which quartet do you prefer? I cherry-picked players for Team 2 that I am in on, so I lean that way, but based on current costs, these are two very possible outcomes, and I’d make Team 2 the favorite to average more points in 2023. I think what we saw from Hockenson with the Vikings last season is sustainable in terms of volume, and if he can fall into a big touchdown season, outsourcing Kelce outright is possible.