NFL head coaching changes are inevitable. Over the past five offseasons, an average of seven teams per year have parted ways with their head coach and started fresh. Next year doesn’t figure to be any different, and several coaches will begin the 2023 campaign on the hot — or at least, warm — seat.
Let’s run through the 10 teams who could conceivably hire a new head coach in 2024.
Which Teams Could Have a New Head Coach in 2024?
Washington Commanders | Ron Rivera
Josh Harris officially purchased the Commanders from Dan Snyder earlier this month, and new owners like to make changes when they take over organizations. Ron Rivera went through an ownership shift as head coach of the Panthers, so he knows the new name at the top of the franchise means altered expectations.
Rivera will almost surely keep his job if Washington makes the playoffs. Since 2001, only three NFL head coaches have been fired in the offseason after earning a playoff appearance. However, if first-year quarterback Sam Howell can prove himself as the Commanders’ long-term option under center, Rivera could be safe even if Washington misses the dance.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Todd Bowles
Todd Bowles’ first season as the Buccaneers’ head coach didn’t go as planned. Promoted from defensive coordinator following Bruce Arians’ retirement, Bowles took a team that had won 24 games over the previous two years and led them to just an 8-9 record while consistently struggling with game management issues.
Next season probably won’t be any better. Tom Brady is out, replaced by the winner of a Baker Mayfield vs. Kyle Trask quarterback battle. Tampa Bay still has enough veteran pieces that they might not totally bottom out in 2023. But there’s a chance the Buccaneers will move in a different direction next offseason following what appears to be a rebuilding campaign.
Los Angeles Chargers | Brandon Staley
Brandon Staley hasn’t posted a losing season in two years as the Chargers’ head coach and took Los Angeles to the playoffs in 2022. But we all know what happened from there. The Bolts allowed the Jaguars to make the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history — in other words, the Chargers Chargered.
Staley was rumored to be on the hot seat following that devastating loss, but L.A. ultimately brought him back. The Chargers have since hired new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and extended Justin Herbert with the hope of fostering long-term offensive cohesion. If Los Angeles misses the postseason (or makes the playoffs but fails to win a game), Staley could be on the chopping block.
Cleveland Browns | Kevin Stefanski
Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed contract means that the Browns can’t release him at any point over the next four seasons. Watson can’t be fired if he struggles again in 2023, but Kevin Stefanski could undoubtedly take the brunt of the blame.
Stefanski led the Browns to their first playoff appearance in nearly two decades in 2020, but Cleveland has failed to post a winning record in either of the past two years. The Browns spent their offseason adding weapons for Watson and retooling their defense. If Stefanski can’t take them back to the tournament in 2023, Cleveland could look for a different option.
Dallas Cowboys | Mike McCarthy
McCarthy has won 24 games over the past two seasons, more than any other head coach on this list. The Cowboys won a playoff game last year but haven’t managed to escape the Divisional Round since 1995. Will Jerry Jones become impatient at a certain point?
Maybe not. McCarthy said earlier this year that Jones suggested he wants McCarthy to coach the Cowboys for as long as Tom Landry (29 years). That’s obviously unrealistic, but a more relaxed Jones than we’ve seen in recent years could be willing to retain McCarthy even if postseason success continues to elude the Cowboys.
Las Vegas Raiders | Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler made an aggressive move shortly after taking over the Raiders last offseason by shipping first and second-round picks to the Packers in exchange for Davante Adams. While Adams was an All-Pro, his presence didn’t help Las Vegas’ end-of-season record.
McDaniels has a rough history of interpersonal relationships throughout his career as a head coach, and he’s already moved on from Derek Carr and Darren Waller. It’s unclear if Jimmy Garoppolo represents an upgrader over Carr, but the Raiders are squarely the fourth-best team in the AFC West. Mark Davis might not want to fire McDaniels after only two seasons, but it’s difficult to say that option won’t be on the table if the Raiders post another losing record.
New Orleans Saints | Dennis Allen
Dennis Allen has proven himself as one of the NFL’s most talented coordinators. The Saints’ defense has ranked as a top-10 unit by DVOA in each of the last six seasons and finished inside the top five in 2020 and 2021.
But Allen also has a ghastly 15-38 record as a head coach between his time with the Saints and the Raiders, and he’s also still somewhat working under the shadow of Sean Payton. It’s extremely difficult to replace a potential Hall of Fame head coach, and Allen may never meet expectations.
New Orleans is favored to win the NFC South in 2023. Adding Derek Carr over the offseason should help them toward that goal, but if the Saints flirt with .500 again and don’t reach the playoffs, Allen could be gone.
Atlanta Falcons | Arthur Smith
Arthur Smith has done an admirable job over two seasons as the Falcons’ head coach, dragging Atlanta to 14 wins in two years with a roster that probably wasn’t actually talented enough to post that many victories.
The Falcons made an effort to improve their defense over the offseason by adding veterans like Jessie Bates, David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, and Jeff Okudah. But questions remain on offense, where the virtually unproven Desmond Ridder is locked in as Atlanta’s starting quarterback. If Ridder flounders, will the Falcons allow Smith to return and try to find a franchise signal-caller?
New England Patriots | Bill Belichick
As hard as it may seem to believe, Bill Belichick appears to be on the hot seat heading into 2023. Belichick made the confounding decision to turn New England’s offense over to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, neither of whom had any significant experience on the offensive side of the ball. Mac Jones regressed and was briefly benched for fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe, and the Patriots’ offense finished just 24th in efficiency.
Bill O’Brien should be able to bring New England’s offense back to respectability and coax Jones into playing as he did during his 2021 rookie season when he finished 16th in QBR. The Patriots’ defense remains elite on paper, meaning there’s at least a chance Belichick could lead New England through the AFC gauntlet and into the playoffs.
It’s hard to imagine the Patriots firing Belichick, who owns more Super Bowl trophies than any other head coach and ranks third on the all-time regular-season wins list. But the tea leaves in New England suggest that he could be out if the Pats miss the postseason for the third time in four years.
Los Angeles Rams | Sean McVay
Sean McVay won’t be fired, but there’s always a chance he could retire. McVay made rumblings about hanging it up after the Rams’ dismal 5-12 campaign in 2022 but ultimately decided to return. He signed an extension last year that will take him through the 2026 season.
Los Angeles should be better on offense next season, provided Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and the club’s offensive line can stay healthy. But the Rams’ defense is a wasteland outside of Aaron Donald. If L.A. struggles through another losing season, McVay — who has cited burnout in the past — could leave the coaching ranks and pursue a career in broadcasting.