Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews has been a high-volume target in consecutive seasons and should again get plenty of opportunities with Lamar Jackson back under center. The volume is nice, but Andrews hasn’t reached paydirt since mid-October, and if those struggles continue, it’ll be an uphill battle for him to provide fantasy football value.
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Mark Andrews’ Fantasy Outlook
The Ravens were as potent as any offense early last season with Jackson functioning at full capacity. The hope now is that new offensive coordinator Todd Monken can sustain that level of danger.
In July, Monken said that his goal is to open up this offense with four wide receivers and put the pressure on defenses. A spike in pass rate would be golden for Andrews, even with the increased target competition he faces this season.
Baltimore drafted Zay Flowers and spent a first-round pick on him in April. They also brought in Odell Beckham Jr. to see what the 30-year old has left in the tank. Additionally, the Ravens added veteran Nelson Agholor to the mix, and Rashod Bateman is still very much in the picture, giving this team a variety of secondary options.
“Secondary.” That’s the key. While the addition of potential at the receiver position is nice, Andrews is still the unquestioned alpha in this offense.
Dobbins is slated to lead this backfield, though health has been tough to come by. Baltimore brought in Melvin Gordon as insurance, but either way, there are no signs that this backfield is going to soak up a significant target share.
Is Andrews a Better Value in Fantasy Football Drafts Than Travis Kelce?
He very well might be. Andrews has been a top-five tight end (half-PPR) in each of the past four seasons, ranking as the TE2 in total points over that stretch (113.3 points ahead of TE3 George Kittle). With a résumé like that, Andrews’ floor is enticing at a position that offers all sorts of inconsistencies once you move outside of the second tier.
The argument for Andrews as a better pick at cost than Kelce (27-32 pick discount) comes down to what has changed from a season ago. For Kelce to prove worthy of a mid-first-round selection, he needs to approach the level of dominance over the position that he did last season (+94.9 points over the TE2).
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Kelce, however, is coming off of another long season with Father Time breathing down his neck, a season in which Patrick Mahomes didn’t miss a game and threw for a career-high 5,250 yards. That’s a lot that went perfectly, and it very well could again, but taking steps backward seems far more likely than making any gains.
Andrews is six years Kelce’s junior and, as mentioned, is getting his explosive QB back from injury while adding an innovative coach. Don’t forget that in 2021, Andrews averaged 1.1 more points per game than Kelce did. I’m not ranking Andrews ahead of Kelce, but I do believe that is within the range of outcomes, something the disparity in ADP suggests is wildly unlikely.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Andrews at His ADP?
I’d surely consider it. I have Kelce, Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson as a pretty clear top tier at the position. In fact, I actually prefer them in reverse order when taking ADP into account.
So yeah, I’m more likely to wait a round and grab Hockenson. But if I’m picking in the middle of Round 3 and unsure if Hockenson will be there for my next pick, Andrews is on the short list of players in my queue.
Also playing into the favor of Andrews at his current ADP is my lack of belief in some of the players in that range. At cost, I really have no interest in Breece Hall, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, or Kenneth Walker III … thus making Andrews a viable pick by way of elimination, if nothing else.
I have a hard time seeing a healthy Andrews costing you a chance at your league title. And when drafting in the early rounds, I find myself leaning toward that type of profile.