The Kansas City Chiefs are a fantasy football machine, and Isiah Pacheco showed some serious promise as a rookie (4.9 yards per carry). As impressive as his first season was, it was his backfield mate Jerick McKinnon who proved to be the league-winner down the stretch. Is Pacheco ready to assume a greater role and be locked into fantasy lineups, or is this offense too pass-heavy for a back like him to succeed consistently?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Outlook
The seventh-round pick truly became a staple in this explosive offense during the Week 10 win over the Jaguars, and from that point forward, he handled 67.4% of Kansas City’s running back carries.
That’s a true workhorse role (for reference, Najee Harris, the league leader in carries since he entered the NFL, accounted for 66.7% of Steelers RB carries over that same stretch), and with the Chiefs averaging 13.6% more points per game than any other offense during the Patrick Mahomes era, that is fantasy gold!
Pacheco’s path to a similar role is pretty clear in 2023, as the only change the Chiefs made in their backfield was adding La’Mical Perine.
The niche that Pacheco has carved out is great, but it does come with its limitations. Despite the pass-heavy nature of this offense, he didn’t see more than three targets in a single regular-season game, and considering he didn’t reach even 20 receptions once during his four years at Rutgers, we have to consider any value gained as a receiver as a bonus.
That’s a problem in today’s spread-out game, not only because most leagues reward at least partial points for receptions but because catches, on average, pick up more yards than runs.
Last season, 17 of the 20 running backs in terms of half-PPR ppg averaged north of two catches per game, a level of output that is simply not in Pacheco’s profile, even in this offense.
Is Pacheco a Weekly Fantasy Starter?
I’m going to straddle the fence a little bit here. Yes, I believe you can leave your draft with the intent of starting Pacheco most weeks, but he is not locked-in to the point where I’d start him over a similar back who is in a plus-matchup.
The case for starting him is simple: The Chiefs have gotten to the red zone nearly four times per game during the Mahomes era, and that level of touchdown equity, even for a two-down back, is tough to top.
MORE: 2023 Non-PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
Of course, the Chiefs are the second-pass-heaviest red-zone unit over that stretch, so a monster TD total isn’t likely, but this is a weekly game, and his scoring equity in any given week is going to be borderline elite as long as he is handling 65% of the running back carries in Kansas City.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Pacheco at His ADP?
I am, yep! I believe what we saw from Pacheco in the second half of last season role-wise is here to stay, and that’s enough to sell me on him at his cost.
Right now, you are able to land him 1-1.5 rounds after running backs like Alexander Mattison, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, and Rachaad White, all of whom are good backs, but they all either play for an offense I don’t trust or are come with at least some question in terms of role.
That’s not the case with Pacheco (two-down back on an elite offense, this much we know), and I’m happy to draft for safety in the middle rounds. If you’re nervous, investing in Jerick McKinnon some 50 picks later or even Clyde Edwards-Helaire more than 100 picks later is a fine hedge, but getting exposure to the elite offenses is a goal of mine every draft, and Pacheco’s asking price — right now — is not prohibitive in my opinion.