Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris was unable to follow his strong rookie season with a quality sophomore campaign. Now entering his third season, should fantasy football managers once again buy into Harris’ bankable volume? What is his fantasy outlook for the 2023 season?
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Najee Harris’ Fantasy Outlook
Harris was a pretty easy fade for me last season. Although he averaged 17.7 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie, it was all on volume. Harris led the league in snap share, opportunity share, and total targets. He had a whopping 401 opportunities (carries + targets).
While Harris’ volume numbers were great, his efficiency metrics told a different story. His 4.4 yards per touch were outside the top 40. His evaded tackles per touch rate was a respectable 20th, but just 3.9% of his carries went for 15+ yards, 28th in the NFL. He also averaged just 1.1 yards per route run, 25th in the league.
Last season, all the negative signs from 2021 came to fruition. Harris maintained his inefficiency on the ground. His opportunity share dropped to 10th. Despite once again playing 17 games, Harris’ total targets dropped to 18th, and he saw 88 fewer opportunities. Unsurprisingly, he went from RB6 to RB19, averaging 13.2 ppg.
Harris’ 15+ carry rate got even worse, falling to 2.6%. His yards per route run did not improve with fewer targets, falling to 0.92. Harris did post a top-10 evaded tackles per touch rate but was only able to generate 2.13 yards created per touch, 45th in the league.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
Defenders of Harris will point to his preseason foot injury as a reason for his poor season. After all, Harris averaged 10.8 ppg from Weeks 1-10 and then 15.8 ppg the rest of the way. The argument is the injury was more serious than the notoriously tight-lipped Steelers let on. As it healed, Harris’ play improved. But did it?
Harris’ efficiency and volume didn’t change much. What did change? Touchdowns. Over the first 10 weeks, Harris scored three times. Over the final eight, he scored seven times.
As I’ve said before, touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. If we could predict them, it would be nearly the only thing that mattered. But as you can see with Harris’ splits, touchdowns are heavily subject to variance. The best we can do is use volume as it correlates to expected touchdown rate. In simplest terms, more volume = more expected touchdowns.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Harris at His ADP?
Last year, Harris’ volume decreased by nearly 25%. The emergence of Jaylen Warren played a huge role in that. Unless Harris suddenly becomes more efficient, his 2022 usage is probably what we should use as a baseline projection.
My projections have Harris carrying the ball 285 times for 1,169 yards and 10.2 touchdowns. I also have him catching 47 passes for 287 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. That comes out to 15.5 ppg and an RB15 finish.
I want to be in on Harris. The Steelers should have an improved offensive line, and Kenny Pickett is no longer a rookie, which is always a good thing for RB production. This offense as a whole should be better.
While Warren is probably the better running back, the Steelers invested a first-round pick in Harris. He’s boring but reliable and can eat up volume. Harris will remain the lead back. He won’t see 400 touches again, but there’s no reason he can’t be around 310-330.
Harris currently has an RB12 ADP, No. 28 overall. This is a very interesting price tag because, relative to his position, he’s overvalued. But relative to overall, he’s undervalued.
I don’t believe Harris can finish much higher than RB12, and I’m very worried about a committee with Warren. I have Harris ranked as my RB16 and won’t be taking him unless I get a significant discount.