Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo steps into a crowded WR room, but also a relatively weak one. Could Mingo work his way into a starting role at some point this year? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Jonathan Mingo’s Fantasy Outlook
Over the past few years, rookie wide receivers have been quite impactful in fantasy, especially over the second half of the season — when it matters most. Mingo likely won’t matter much to start the season, but could there be a path to him following the trend of a strong finish to his rookie season?
The Panthers gave Mingo pretty good draft capital, selecting him early in the second round. At 6’1″, 226 pounds, Mingo profiles as an outside receiver. His 96th-percentile speed score suggests he’s likely a stretch Z at the NFL level. NFL WR1 may not be in his range of outcomes, but plenty of successful fantasy receivers have been WR2s.
Mingo is an excellent athlete, but he wasn’t overly dominant in college. He also posted a rather low 55.4% catch rate in his senior season at Ole Miss. Of course, that can be explained by Mingo being used as a downfield target, resulting in a higher degree of difficult receptions.
As with most rookies, the biggest impediment to success is playing time. Mingo steps into a WR room that features incumbents Terrace Marshall Jr., Shi Smith, and Laviska Shenault Jr., as well as free agent signees Adam Thielen and DJ Chark.
Mingo should open the season no worse than fourth on the depth chart. It would be a huge indictment of his ability if he can’t easily surpass the underwhelming Marshall in short order as well.
While Thielen sure looks like he’s done, and Chark hasn’t been able to come close to replicating his breakout 2019 season, they’re still the overwhelming favorites to lead Carolina in targets and open the season as the starters in two-receiver sets.
The question Mingo needs to answer is whether he can take one of their jobs purely based on merit. The injury upside always exists, but if Mingo needs an injury to unseat 33-year-old Thielen or the mediocre Chark, I’m not overly optimistic about his fantasy upside.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Mingo at His ADP?
Fantasy managers are most bullish on Mingo amongst Panthers wide receivers, but not by much, and it may vary depending on the platform. Mingo’s ADP sits at WR62, No. 172 overall. He’s going eight spots behind Thielen and four spots behind Chark. Unsurprisingly, no other Panthers receiver is even remotely in consideration to get drafted.
The fact that the first Carolina pass catcher to be drafted is not until WR54 speaks volumes about what the fantasy community thinks of this passing game. Unfortunately, I can’t really disagree; 2023 very much looks like a rebuilding year for the Panthers.
I have all the confidence in the world in Bryce Young as a long-term NFL starter. Within 2-3 years, I expect he will be a top-15 starting QB. But as a rookie, he’s probably not going to help bolster the values of his pass catchers.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings
As the Fantasy Footballers pointed out, 70% of rookie quarterbacks since 2004 have failed to support even a single top-36 WR. And no rookie QB has ever supported two top-40 options.
The odds are severely against Mingo mattering in fantasy this season. With that said, there’s still a path to him being a useful fantasy asset.
Mingo doesn’t have to finish as a WR3 to have utility as a WR3. He could be a completely irrelevant player for the first half of the season or so, only to do that thing rookies do when they start to figure it out after they have a couple of months of NFL action under their belt.
My projections have Mingo catching 22 passes for 350 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. That also assumes Thielen and Chark stay healthy and remain effective. One or both of them could prove ineffective, or get hurt, leading to increased volume for Mingo. That volume could also be backloaded toward the second half of the season, allowing Mingo to return WR3/WR4 value down the stretch.
That is my most optimistic outlook on Mingo’s rookie season, as I have him ranked at WR87 — well behind Thielen and Chark.
I understand the preference for Mingo. He’s an unknown. Thielen and Chark are who they are — they’re not about to provide any sort of serious upside. Mingo…who knows? Maybe?
I get taking the shot, but fantasy managers can best approach Mingo by monitoring him throughout the season. There’s no reason to burn a draft pick on him in August or early September.