Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk was a very unexciting pick last season. He was also one of the better values in fantasy drafts. With Calvin Ridley presumed to be the new WR1, is Kirk undervalued once again? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Christian Kirk’s Fantasy Outlook
After four largely forgettable years in Arizona, Kirk wasn’t exactly the type of player you’d expect to suddenly have a career year. But that’s exactly what he did in 2022.
Kirk set career-highs in targets (133), receptions (84), yards (1,108), and touchdowns (8). Obviously, this resulted in a career-best 14.2 PPR fantasy points per game and a WR18 finish.
During his time in Arizona, he was grossly misused as primarily an outside receiver. Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson finally moved Kirk to the slot — where he belongs and ran 52% of his routes from — and we saw the impact.
Kirk commanded a target on 25.7% of his routes run, 23rd in the league. His 2.14 yards per route run was 22nd in the league. These are excellent numbers for a guy no one really believed could be a WR1.
Now, for the bad news. The Jaguars don’t really view Kirk as a WR1, either. That’s why they went out and traded for then-suspended WR Calvin Ridley.
Last season, Trevor Lawrence emerged as a version of the quarterback who was promised when he was taken first overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. We can presume he will only get better in his third season (and second with a competent coach).
Lawrence is absolutely capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers. The question for fantasy managers is how much of a hit, if any, will Kirk’s production take as the second option behind Ridley?
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Kirk at His ADP?
There is nothing exciting or “sexy” about drafting Kirk. His ceiling is probably not much higher than what we saw last year. But I do think he comes with a very solid floor and is likely being drafted close to it.
Kirk finished as the WR18 last season. His ADP is WR32, No. 80 overall. He’s still going a bit high in total, but relative to his position, Kirk is probably more likely a value than not.
For starters, there’s no guarantee Ridley even out-targets Kirk. The assumption, based on previous performance, is that Ridley will be the WR1 and Kirk the WR2.
Well, we haven’t seen Ridley play football at a high level since 2020. To be fair, he was excellent, averaging 18.8 ppg and finishing as the overall WR4. But three years is a long time in the NFL.
Ridley will turn 29 years old before the 2023 season ends. He missed the entire 2022 campaign. When we last saw him in 2021, he was mediocre, at best, averaging 14.2 ppg over five games played before he stepped away from football.
Is Ridley still motivated? Is he still good? Even if the answer to both of these questions is “yes,” will Lawrence prefer Ridley to Kirk? There are multiple paths to Kirk outperforming his ADP.
My projections have Kirk catching 82 passes for 1,071 yards and nine touchdowns. That comes out to 13.5 ppg and a WR30 finish. While that is both lower than his ADP and my WR24 rank of him, it’s not by much. The difference between the WR30 and WR24 in my projections is 0.5 ppg. It’s very easy for Kirk to play a little better and get there.
Now, to be fair, the Jaguars do have a lot of offensive weapons. In addition to Ridley and Kirk, Lawrence has Evan Engram, Zay Jones, and two capable receiving backs in Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.
Fortunately, the Jaguars had a 57% neutral-game-script-pass rate last season. It’s not the highest rate, but it is in the top half of the league. With a progressive head coach calling the shots, the Jaguars could be even more pass-heavy this season, given their roster construction. Even if Kirk only plays in three-receiver sets, I’m not sure he will lose that much volume.
The point of all of this is there are several different paths to Kirk maintaining his productivity from last season or, at the very least, only declining a little. His cost in fantasy drafts assumes a much larger decline. I’m willing to gamble that doesn’t happen. I would stop short of calling Kirk someone I’m actively trying to draft, but he’s certainly someone I’m looking at as we move toward the middle portion of fantasy drafts.