Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top WR of this year’s rookie class. While his long-term prospects look bright, he is currently blocked by DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. What is Smith-Njigba’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Outlook
It’s been a long time since the Seahawks have had three quality receivers. Of course, it’s probably too soon to officially declare Smith-Njigba a quality receiver, but the odds are certainly in his favor.
Seattle has had household names at wide receiver, but they were more names than actual performers by the time they were on the Seahawks. Guys like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin just weren’t very good anymore when they were playing alongside the likes of Doug Baldwin or Golden Tate. And forgive me if I will stop short of calling Jermaine Kearse or Paul Richardson quality WR3s.
After spending the entire Russell Wilson era without a true WR3, the Seahawks spent a first-round pick on Smith-Njigba. While I’m quite confident he will display a decently high fantasy ceiling over the course of his career, fantasy managers need to know what JSN’s going to do as a rookie.
Last season, Seattle was as pass-heavy as they’ve ever been under Pete Carroll. They threw the ball 60% of the time in neutral game script. After years of the “Let Russ Cook” movement, all it took for the Seahawks to finally throw the ball was to “Let Russ Go.”
Chef Geno Smith directed 45.1% of his passes at Metcalf and Lockett. Another 14.6% of them went toward the running backs. Let’s call it an even 60% of passes to Metcalf, Lockett, and the RBs. That still leaves 40% of the team’s pass attempts available to other players.
For JSN to be fantasy viable as a rookie, he’ll need the bulk of those to go his way. So, can they?
Last season, the Seahawks pretty much abandoned the concept of a WR3. Thirty-two-year-old Marquise Goodwin was third on the team in targets at the position with just a 7.3% target share. Seattle’s next two wide receivers — D’Wayne Eskridge and Laquon Treadwell — saw a total of 23 targets combined.
Rather than throw to any wide receiver not named Metcalf or Lockett, 23.6% of Smith’s passes went to Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson. While all three are capable NFL tight ends, that surely isn’t optimal.
Conventional wisdom suggests that JSN will consolidate a bunch of these targets going to ancillary players. The Seahawks could stand to give the rookie 75% of the non-Metcalf/Lockett WR targets and at least 40% of the tight end targets. Will that be enough, though?
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Smith-Njigba at His ADP?
My projections have JSN at a 17% target share. I project him catching 70 passes for 729 yards and three touchdowns, which comes out to just 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game and a WR49 finish.
At first glance, you may think I’m out on JSN. After all, he’s got a WR37 ADP (No. 95 overall). But as we well know, fantasy football is a weekly game.
Given JSN’s rookie status, he was already going to open the season firmly behind Metcalf and Lockett. In the wake of JSN’s wrist fracture, he is definitely going to open the season well behind Metcalf and Lockett.
Reports indicate he could miss anywhere from a couple of weeks to being held out through the Seahawks’ Week 5 bye. That means it may be a while before we see him on the field in two-WR sets, possibly not until next season.
I’m projecting a slow start for Smith-Njigba. Historically, wide receivers often struggle to produce over the first half of their rookie seasons before finishing strong as they get acclimated to the NFL.
There’s also the matter of Lockett being 31 years old. While I don’t think Lockett is going to fall off, nor has he shown any signs of decline, the potential does exist for the 21-year-old rookie to unseat him as the team’s WR2. Lockett still looks like a very good player, but it’s possible Smith-Njigba proves to be better.
The point is there are a couple of different ways JSN opens the season as someone you won’t even think about starting but closes the season as an every-week WR2.
JSN could get to roughly 10 ppg on the season by averaging 6-7 ppg over the first half and 13-14 ppg over the second half. September matters in fantasy football, but fantasy championships are won in December.
The purpose of this is to not deter you from drafting JSN if you believe in him. With that said, I have JSN ranked as my WR34. I believe in his talent. And although I don’t think he’s going to overtake Lockett this season, part of being a great fantasy manager is accounting for being wrong. I will gladly take a shot on JSN at his ADP. I’m JUST not reaching for him.