Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is coming off another underwhelming season. Now three years removed from being a fantasy WR1, can Metcalf return to being a high-end fantasy option? Or was 2020 his peak? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
DK Metcalf’s Fantasy Outlook
Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like the perception regarding Metcalf’s 2022 season is greater than the reality. Metcalf’s value ahead of 2022 fantasy drafts took a sizable hit following the combination of Russell Wilson’s departure and the Seahawks’ commitment to actually rolling with Geno Smith as their starter.
While no one saw Smith being an upgrade on Wilson coming, I remember warming up to the idea of Metcalf as fantasy drafts neared, simply due to how far his value had seemingly fallen. For a guy who was a consensus top-eight WR the year prior, WR20 seemed like pretty good value.
With Smith, Metcalf put together 90 receptions for 1,048 yards and six touchdowns. I think it’s fair to say he overperformed expectations in a post-Wilson world. Yet, Metcalf was actually not worth his cost in 2022 fantasy drafts. His 13.3 ppg marked a 1.1 ppg decline from the previous season, and his WR24 finish was below his ADP.
With that said, when you assess Metcalf’s 2022 season, fantasy managers who thought he was undervalued were actually correct. It was a classic case of good process producing not-so-good results.
Although Metcalf’s target share dipped slightly to 25.5%, the Seahawks suddenly became a pass-first offense. All these years, I thought it was Pete Carroll holding back Wilson. After what we saw from Wilson last year, maybe it was Carroll protecting Wilson all along.
The Seahawks threw the ball 60% of the time in a neutral game script, the seventh-highest rate in the league. As a result, Metcalf set career-highs in targets and receptions.
To explain Metcalf’s poor season, relatively speaking, we can point to two things. The most obvious one is touchdowns. Metcalf was second in the league in red-zone targets with 27. Yet, he scored just six times, a career-low. In each of the previous two seasons, Metcalf scored 12 and 10 touchdowns on 75 and 83 receptions.
By all accounts, Metcalf should’ve scored at least nine touchdowns last season. And that’s being conservative. He certainly has the talent and saw the volume to score 12-14 times.
Had Metcalf merely scored nine, though, he would’ve averaged 14.4 ppg, good for a WR17 finish. That would’ve made Metcalf a slight value relative to cost. Had he scored 11 times, we’re looking at 15.1 ppg and a near-WR1 finish.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Metcalf at His ADP?
The thing is, Metcalf’s ADP seems to be taking this into account. Despite his WR24 finish, Metcalf’s ADP is up at WR15, No. 33 overall. It’s the second-highest it’s ever been in his career.
Essentially, fantasy managers need to pay for Metcalf as if he will regress to the mean in terms of touchdown variance. I’ve got Metcalf ranked at WR15, and I think there’s a cliff after he goes in fantasy drafts. However, I’m not sure I want to pay for improvement.
My projections have Metcalf catching 88 passes for 1,130 yards and 8.4 touchdowns. I’ve got him improving upon last year, averaging 14.8 ppg and finishing as the WR19. The problem is his cost necessitates Metcalf to at least perform as well as my projections suggest.
Now, that’s not to say Metcalf doesn’t have the capability of absolutely smashing. He averaged 17.0 ppg in 2020 and is an incredible athlete. Metcalf possesses the talent to have an 18+ ppg season. It’s just not exactly a high-probability outcome.
The Seahawks were a very consolidated offense last season. They had Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and their RB1. This season, the team added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and Zach Charbonnet in the second.
That’s two more talented offensive weapons. Draft capital suggests both will see the ball. There is only one football to go around.
It’s fair to project 31-year-old Lockett to be the most at risk. But Lockett is coming off a 14.8 ppg season where he outperformed Metcalf. Lockett seems to be undervalued every year. I’m not trying to doubt Lockett.
Metcalf is unlikely to bust, but he’s also unlikely to see the concentrated volume to produce much better than a high-WR2 season, which is what you need to pay to draft him.
By no means am I fading Metcalf. If he’s the top receiver on my board and I’m looking to draft a receiver, I will have no problem pushing the button. But I will stop short of calling Metcalf a player I am actively targeting in 2023 fantasy drafts.