Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin has been no worse than a high WR2 ever since his 2019 breakout. Can he overcome the worst quarterback situation of his career? What is Godwin’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Chris Godwin’s Fantasy Outlook
There is no denying that Godwin is very good at football. Since breaking out in 2019, Godwin has never finished lower than WR15. He’s finished exactly WR15 twice, including last season, while mixing in two years as the WR2 and WR7. In ideal circumstances, Godwin has top-five upside.
The problem for Godwin is he’s enjoyed three years of Tom Brady as his quarterback. Now, he is faced with trying to produce while receiving passes from Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.
Last season, Godwin returned earlier than expected from a late-2021 ACL tear. He also battled an early-season hamstring strain. Despite all of that, he still commanded a massive 142 targets and averaged 14.9 PPR fantasy points per game.
The thing is, Godwin’s target share was still only 21.8%. He averaged just 1.84 yards per route run, 38th in the league, and 7.2 yards per target, 71st in the league.
Godwin benefited greatly from the Bucs’ extremely pass-heavy offense. Over the past three seasons with Brady under center, no team threw at a higher rate in a neutral game script than the Bucs’ 63% clip. Their 27.1 seconds-per-snap pace of play was also the fourth-fastest in the league over that span.
With Brady, the Bucs ran a lot of plays and threw a lot of passes. Brady led the NFL in pass attempts each of the past two seasons with a whopping 719 and 733.
Godwin may very well see his target share increase this season. But everything else is likely to take a hit. Godwin and the Bucs’ receivers will see a drop in the quality of targets, overall volume, and offensive proficiency.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Godwin at His ADP?
My projections have Godwin seeing a 25% target share, which is an increase from last season. However, I have the Bucs attempting 563 passes as a team. That is still more toward the higher end of pass attempts, as I expect the team to be trailing and thus forced to throw, but still a 23% decrease from last season.
As a result, I have Godwin projected for 95 catches, 1,129 yards, and 5.5 touchdowns. That comes out to 14.3 ppg and a WR20 finish.
Although I have Godwin projected for his worst season since 2018, the fantasy community has turned on him even more. Godwin’s ADP sits at WR26, No. 65 overall.
I don’t like taking players on bad offenses, but there are situations where it makes sense. For all the justified criticisms levied at Mayfield, he did support Odell Beckham’s 19.2 ppg and Jarvis Landry’s 13.4 ppg in 2018. As the younger receiver with the lower average depth of target, I much prefer Godwin to Mike Evans as the guy likely to take less of a hit going from Brady to Mayfield.
The three key components in evaluating fantasy output are situation, opportunity, and talent. Oftentimes, fantasy managers overvalue one of these to feed a particular narrative. With Godwin, perhaps the fantasy community is undervaluing talent, of which Godwin has loads.
The obvious concern with Godwin is the situation. There’s no denying the Bucs are going to be a much worse team without Brady. They will sustain fewer drives and score fewer points. But this offense is still going to score some points. They will have players that produce. Given Godwin’s ADP, he just might actually be a value because the hate has gone too far.
I have Godwin ranked as my WR25. That is still lower than he’s finished at any point in the past four seasons but firmly above the consensus.
Godwin obviously doesn’t have the same upside he would in a better offense with better quarterback play. However, this is still a talented 27-year-old wide receiver in his prime and another year removed from his torn ACL.
As a player, Godwin should be healthier and better this season. Even with bad quarterback play, he’s likely being drafted at his floor. If the Bucs surprise us, Godwin could be one of the steals of the season. I think I’m in on Godwin in 2023 fantasy drafts.