Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a breakout season that was marred by a series of brutal concussions. Can the Dolphins keep their QB healthy? And if so, is he undervalued in fantasy drafts? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Outlook
There’s no denying that concussions were the main story of Tagovailoa’s 2022 season. However, we can’t let the injuries, albeit very serious, overshadow the fact that, when on the field, Tagovailoa was a force to be reckoned with.
As it turns out, adding a forward-thinking offensive-minded head coach and one of the five best receivers in football is really good for a quarterback.
Now, I’m not going to pretend as though I was aggressively drafting Tagovailoa last season — I wasn’t. But if you read my 2022 fantasy outlook for Tua, you knew the path to a QB1 season existed.
Quoting myself, “A game manager-type QB turning into a strong fantasy option overnight is not unprecedented. Just take a look at Alex Smith in 2017.
“Smith was a career mid-to-low QB2, never averaging much more than 17 ppg. In 2017, he suddenly averaged 20 ppg and finished top three at the position. What changed? Well, in 2016, the Chiefs used a fifth-round pick on some kid named Tyreek Hill. By the end of 2016, Hill had become a starter, and entering 2017, he was ready to break out.
“I’m not saying Tagovailoa can get to 20 ppg, but Smith did in 2017. Even if Tagovailoa tops out at around 18 ppg, that would still make him a low QB1 and one of the best values at QB in 2022 fantasy football drafts.”
Last season, Tagovailoa averaged 18.4 ppg, finishing as the QB9. Essentially, it played out exactly as I suggested it might.
With Hill on the roster, the Dolphins transformed into a downfield passing machine. Jaylen Waddle went from a low-aDOT, underneath guy to the most efficient receiver in the league.
Tagovailoa led the league in deep-ball completion percentage at 50%. His 8.9 yards per attempt was first, and his 9.3 average depth of target was third.
The difference between Tua and Alex Smith is we had a decade’s worth of evidence as to who Smith was. Tagovailoa is still just 25 years old. We have every reason to believe he can continue to build upon what he did in 2022, provided he can stay healthy.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Tagovailoa at His ADP?
Tagovailoa currently has a QB11 ADP, No. 88 overall. I won’t say he’s being drafted at his floor, but he comes with very little performance risk. If he stays healthy, he is highly unlikely to bust at his cost.
Offseason reports indicate Tua has been working on learning how to protect himself better. While past concussions make future concussions more serious, it’s not as if Tua’s brain is “weaker” as a result. He just needs to do his best to avoid landing hard on his head. I’m willing to bank on him being able to remain healthy.
My projections have Tagovailoa completing 413 of 620 attempts for 4,950 yards and 32.2 touchdowns. I’ve got him at 19.5 ppg, finishing as the QB10. I also have him ranked as the QB10. With Tua, we have a perfect convergence of ADP, projection, and ranking. As a result, my only conclusion can be that he is properly priced.
Fantasy managers who do not draft a QB early should certainly look to Tagovailoa as a quality option. He is unlikely to let you down, and there is the potential for a top-five finish if he has an outlier touchdown year.