Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown dominated targets over the first six games of last season while DeAndre Hopkins was suspended. He proved he can be an NFL WR1. With Hopkins gone, Brown has little competition for targets but might be without Kyler Murray for the entire season. What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Marquise Brown’s Fantasy Outlook
After two mediocre seasons to start his career, it was unclear whether Brown could be a guy that commands a large number of targets. While he saw a hefty target share in Baltimore, it was on the Ravens’ run-centric offense that featured few passes. Brown’s 26.3% target share in 2020 amounted to just 100 targets.
In 2021, Brown’s target share dropped to 23.7%, but the Ravens were forced to throw more due to their porous defense. As a result, Brown handled 145 targets, proving capable of being an NFL WR1.
Although Brown averaged 14.1 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021, it was really a tale of two halves. From Weeks 1-9, he averaged 18.8 ppg. From Weeks 10-18, Brown averaged a paltry 9.5 ppg. Of course, part of that coincided with Lamar Jackson’s injury. But the reality was Brown’s target share didn’t change — he just stopped catching downfield passes and stopped scoring touchdowns.
Last season, unhappy with his situation in Baltimore, Brown got himself traded to the Cardinals, where, once again, it was a tale of two halves.
From Weeks 1-6, when Brown was operating as Kyler Murray’s WR1 without Hopkins in the lineup, he averaged 18.3 ppg and 10.6 targets per game.
Hopkins returned in Week 7, and Brown broke his foot. The two did not play together until Week 12. From that point forward, Brown averaged 7.2 targets per game and just 7.8 ppg. Once again, an injury to his starting quarterback played a role. But once again, Brown stopped catching downfield passes and stopped scoring touchdowns.
Entering the 2023 season, we have two conflicting arguments for Brown’s performance. On the one hand, Hopkins is gone, leaving Brown as the unquestioned WR1 on this team. Not only is he the WR1, but the Cardinals have one of the weakest groups of pass catchers behind him in Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal, and rookie third-rounder Michael Wilson. By all accounts, Brown should see well over a 25% target share, possibly pushing 30%.
On the other hand, Brown is going to be without Murray for some, if not all, of the season. Murray seems likely to start the season on the PUP list. And if the Cardinals have six or seven losses by the time he’s ready to return, there’s no guarantee they bring him back.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Brown at His ADP?
Obviously, we, as fantasy managers, would like Murray to come back, regardless of whether it makes sense for the Cardinals. Brown’s WR33 ADP suggests that fantasy managers don’t really think Murray will return.
Playing a full season with Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune is obviously not the best. However, we often overstate the impact of poor quarterback play on wide receivers, especially when they’re the clear top target.
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The Cardinals may be bad, but they’re still going to score points. Someone has to catch the ball. It’s probably going to be Brown.
Even with the second-half disappearing act, he still averaged 13.0 ppg last season, finishing as the WR27. Brown is being priced right about at his floor.
What I really like about Brown is he can exceed expectations not only due to pure volume but what if Murray does return and plays the second half of the season? If Murray were healthy, where would Brown be going? My guess is inside the top 20.
Fantasy managers may catch on, and his ADP may spike to undraftable levels. But for now, Brown is one of my favorite targets this season. I have him projected for 95 catches for 1,057 yards and 6.8 touchdowns. That comes out to 14.1 ppg and a WR23 finish. And those are conservative projections based on volume but low efficiency sans Murray.
In my rankings, I have Brown at WR22. I am very bullish on him as the only game in town and will be saying “hello” to Hollywood in 2023 fantasy drafts.