We had a monster bounce back from our handicapping expert last weekend. Chris Smith followed up his worst week of the season with a 5+ unit Sunday and another winner on Monday night. Chris is essentially dead even on the season overall at this point and expects to jump back into the black with another strong card in Week 15. This week Chris has one side, one teaser, and one money line parlay as all of his alter-egos make an appearance for Week 15 of 2019. As always, follow Chris’ live plays on the All-Access twitter page. He already has a Monday Night play available on the page, so you might want to jump on that now a day in advance to avoid any potential line movement. Now, onto the NFL Week 15 Picks!
Texans +3 (-105) risk $26.50 to win $25
The over will be the popular play in this pivotal AFC South matchup, but the value in that number will be completely gone by the time this article publishes on Sunday morning. If you were able to grab the over earlier this week when it was still in the 40s, congrats, but I can’t recommend taking it at 51 or higher. The Titans have been an offensive juggernaut with the resurgent Ryan Tannehill at the helm, and the Texans defense has gotten progressively worse since JJ Watt went out for the year. However, the Tennessee secondary has their own issues. I expect Deshaun Watson to continue his streak of strong road performances here, especially if the oft-injured Will Fuller is available. Are the Texans the team that knocked off the Patriots in prime time two weeks ago or the one that laid an egg against Drew Lock and the Broncos last Sunday? The truth is probably somewhere in between.
The market is obviously bullish on the Titans, who have looked impressive winning 6 of their last 7 games. Derrick Henry missed practice all week to nurse his hamstring, though, and if the Titans are forced to play without him for stretches on Sunday, their offense would suddenly look far less daunting. I’m expecting some regression from the Titans in this spot, and I think the Texans have an opportunity to win this one outright. Regardless, I believe this is a close game where getting the three points provides the safety net of a push in case of a 27-24 finish in the Titans favor. Give me the Texans +3 for one unit early.
ML Parlay- Chiefs, Patriots & Seahawks (+122) risk $30 to win $36.50
Patty Parlay returns with his first 3 team ML parlay in over a month. Patty is 3-1 this season on three-team parlays and sees no reason this one can’t earn us nearly two units Sunday afternoon. We start with the no-brainer portion of this play in Cincinnati, where Bill Belichick and the Patriots are coming off rare consecutive losses. New England is about 9 point favorites on the road against the lowly Bengals. The Patriots couldn’t lose this game outright if they tried. Thus commences the “no-sweat” portion of this bet.
The second leg of this parlay is a tad trickier as the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a massive win over the aforementioned Patriots. Now they host the suddenly formidable Denver Broncos who will undoubtedly be getting a ton of action at +10 in a divisional road dog spot. However, the Chiefs have absolutely owned the Broncos in the Andy Reid era, winning eight straight overall. Denver can have their cover, I’ll take the more talented Chiefs team at home to win, even with a banged-up Patrick Mahomes.
The final leg of our three-team money line parlay heads back on the road to Carolina, where the Seahawks look to bounce back from a disappointing performance on Sunday night against the Rams. No one seems to be sure about the state of the Panthers locker room after the dismissal of Ron Rivera. The Seahawks, meanwhile, must have this game with so many teams vying for playoff spots in the NFC. Seattle has played in more close games than anyone this season, so I completely understand anyone backing the Panthers with the six points this week. Needing the Seahawks to win outright with Russell Wilson at the helm is the side I want to be on when push comes to shove, though.
Teaser- Cowboys +7.5 & Bills +8 (-120) $30 to win $25
It wouldn’t be a party without an appearance from Tommy Teaser. There were infinite possibilities in terms of strong teasers this weekend with the Chargers, Raiders, and Bears all providing value, but I love the Bills and Cowboys in their respective spots Sunday evening. We’ll start with the Cowboys who’ve been essentially abandoned by the betting world. Dallas opened as a three-point home favorite and now is as much as a two-point underdog in some spots. The LA Rams looked really good last week against the Seahawks and are riding a two-game win streak, while Dallas has been putrid this holiday season. However, I think the market has overcorrected in this case, and the value is on the Cowboys. Despise their losing record and horrific coaching, Dallas remains in playoff contention. Getting more than a touchdown at home against a Rams team that most people had given up on just a few weeks is too much value to pass on. This is a classic buy-low, sell high scenario in a league that consistently reminds us that no team is as good or as bad as you think based on the previous week’s results.
The second half of this teaser finds the Buffalo Bills getting two points in Pittsburgh in a game that’s been flexed into Primetime. Imagine if I had told you that back in Week 4 when the Steelers were winless and without Ben Roethlisberger. Yet, here we are with both Pittsburgh and Buffalo on the cusp of a playoff appearance. If Josh Allen can avoid turning the ball over, I like the Bills to pull off the victory Sunday night. Buffalo has already proven the primetime stage isn’t too bright by thumping the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Now they get the opportunity to face a Duck Dynasty led Steelers team that has always performed better as underdogs than favorites under Mike Tomlin. This is a perfect teaser spot where we get Buffalo at +8 in a game with one of the lowest projected point totals (36) you will ever see.