The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are getting a value on draft day. What is Johnston’s ceiling, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Quentin Johnston’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Heading into the NFL Draft, the Chargers were a team fantasy managers hoped would select one of the early wide receivers in this year’s class. Luckily enough, we got our wish, and in 2023, fantasy managers will be looking at Johnston to see if the No. 21 overall pick is set to shine under the bright lights.
Out of the top-tier receivers coming into last season (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kayshon Boutte, Jordan Addison, and Johnston), Johnston was the only one who truly excelled in 2022 and boosted his chances of being drafted.
He had an impressive 1,064 yards and six touchdowns on 59 of 49 receiving, with an average of 3.22 YPRR, 11.8 yards per reception, and an efficient 2.47 YPTPA. He also checks the measurables box standing 6’3″ and 208 pounds with a 40 1/2″ inch vertical leap.
While not a burner, Johnston is a RAC specialist with an explosive first step, allowing him to gain immediate separation. However, he is not the most polished receiver and has a few red flags that need to be mentioned.
Firstly, his tendency to catch the ball with his body rather than his hands negates some of his size advantages. Furthermore, his drop rate and low contested-catch rate (40.7%) are concerning for someone billed as the “go up and get it” guy.
That being said, there is so much darn upside here with Johnston. I knew there is trepidation with a TCU receiver, especially ones with first-round draft capital, but Johnston’s landing spot and opportunity are sublime.
Johnston joins Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but the most significant part is OC Kellen Moore, who will bring a more vertically attacking scheme to LA that meshes with not only Herbert but also Johnston.
Los Angeles Could Be a Fantasy Gold Mine if History Repeats Itself
Los Angeles will remain one of the pass-happiest teams in the league. They operated out of the shotgun on 48% of their first downs, with 60% coming from 11 personnel with an overall passing rate of 67%. Their overall passing rate was 4.3% higher than the expected rate, the fourth-highest positive differential in the NFL.
It’s a near inevitability that Williams and Allen will miss games in 2023, and in those weeks, Johnston could have WR2 upside, assuming he does clearly beat out Josh Palmer early in camp. He is the field stretcher, as even Ekeler has called him and said it was a component that was missing from their offense in years past.
I think a fair comparison to the situation and scheme is the 2020 Cowboys, and there can be more than enough volume to go around. Amari Cooper saw 130 targets, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combining for 111. CeeDee Lamb saw 111 targets, while Michael Gallup was at 105 and Dalton Schultz at 89.
Volume-hog Allen could fill the Cooper role, Ekeler could account for all RB targets, plus Johnston, Williams, and Gerald Everett could fill Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz’s roles. The concern for volume might be a bit overblown.
While still accounting for Palmer taking some of the targets early in the year and Johnston expected to dominate the WR3 role over the second half, current projections have Johnston slated to record approximately 50-55 receptions for 725-750 yards and 4-5 touchdowns.
Should You Draft Quentin Johnston This Year?
Rookie wide receivers are among the best values in redraft leagues as they are more likely to find considerable value based on draft capital.
That said, they have become less and less of a value over recent years due to the rookie performances of guys like Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase, pushing following classes higher up draft boards. Simply put, we’ve been spoiled.
Although I don’t expect Johnston, or any rookie wide receiver, to have a breakout performance like those in recent years, Johnston isn’t going to break the bank either, making him far more intriguing.
Using a composite of different sites to understand the shifting ADP landscape better, Johnston is being drafted as WR48 overall with an ADP of 120.
That places Johnston as not only the WR3 off the board for the Chargers (Allen and Williams) but also the third-highest drafted rookie receiver behind Smith-Njigba and Addison, who are going approximately 25-30 picks ahead of Johnston, who comes off the board in the ninth round.
While I would not want to draft Johnston under the pretense that he is my opening week WR3 or WR4, I love the upside, as Johnston was one of my favorite players of this class, and I want as much exposure to the Chargers often as possible.
This is the year when they can blow up. I certainly don’t think they’re going to knock down the Kansas City Chiefs, but this could very well be the season where Justin Herbert gets back to his rookie trajectory, where we thought he would be one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL.
When you throw in more verticality and the fact that Johnston’s role will only grow, like his confidence on the field, that’s a player I want on my team. As a WR5/6, depending on how the draft goes, let Johnston develop on your bench, and don’t be surprised if you wind up with the best draft-day values when it comes to a Chargers receiver.