San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey integrated seamlessly into the offense after being traded midseason. Now having a full offseason to learn the playbook even better, how good can McCaffrey be in the 49ers’ RB-friendly offense? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Christian McCaffrey’s Fantasy Outlook
Heading into the 2022 season, McCaffrey was the unquestioned No. 2 overall pick in my eyes. My only regret is not having the beans to rank him ahead of Jonathan Taylor at No. 1.
Since climbing to the top of the mountain in 2019, no single player in fantasy football has been better than McCaffrey. The issue, of course, has been his health. McCaffrey’s health is also the only reason he wasn’t ranked at RB1 last season.
After missing 20 games over the course of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, fantasy managers were justifiably jaded from McCaffrey’s lack of playing football. He responded by playing all 17 games, averaging 21.0 PPR fantasy points per game, and finishing as the overall RB2 behind only Austin Ekeler.
We know McCaffrey is one of the best running backs in recent history. He’s efficient, averaging 5.7 yards per touch last season and 3.26 yards created per touch. He led all running backs in target share at 21.8% and route participation rate at 75%. The question for fantasy managers is whether he can be a 20+ ppg guy again. The answer isn’t as cut and dry as you may think.
Unlike the Carolina Panthers, the 49ers have a bevy of talented offensive weapons at their disposal. Their offense doesn’t need to run through McCaffrey, nor do they need to feed him 25 touches a game. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all extremely capable of carrying the offense on any given Sunday.
Additionally, the 49ers seem to not want to overwhelm McCaffrey with volume, provided they have the means to not do so.
Last season, McCaffrey averaged 22.7 ppg in his 13 games without Elijah Mitchell but just 15.3 ppg in four games with him. The difference was noticeable. McCaffrey averaged 15.5 carries per game without Mitchell and 10.5 carries per game with Mitchell. It’s clear the 49ers intend to have Mitchell plenty involved when healthy.
Now, to be clear, I am not suggesting McCaffrey will only average 15-16 ppg this season if Mitchell is healthy. This is more to point out that we shouldn’t expect to see the McCaffrey who averaged 29.3 ppg in 2019 ever again.
In an ideal world, McCaffrey will see around 10-12 carries and 5-6 targets per game. On a 49ers offense that had a 47% neutral-game-script-run rate, there will still be games where McCaffrey has significant volume on the ground. And we saw a deliberate intent to throw him the ball in San Francisco last year. He’s going to be an elite RB1. He just may not be the RB1.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft McCaffrey at His ADP?
McCaffrey is being drafted as the RB1, No. 2 overall. It’s understandable because the only concern for him is health. If he plays football, he’s going to finish in the top five. Of that, we can be supremely confident.
Editor’s Note: Trey Lance has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys.
I have McCaffrey projected for 224 carries, 1,035 yards, and 10.2 touchdowns on the ground, as well as 81 receptions, 697 yards, and 5.1 touchdowns through the air. That comes out to 20.4 ppg and an overall RB2 finish.
I do consider my projections of McCaffrey to be a bit conservative. This presumes Mitchell stays healthy and takes a decent chunk of the work. On an explosive 49ers offense, there is always the potential for McCaffrey to be exceedingly efficient, reach 20+ touchdowns, or just touch the ball more than expected.
McCaffrey is currently my RB1, and I have no reservations about selecting him anywhere in the top half of the first round in fantasy drafts.