The 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds make for interesting reading, with a mix of different positions sitting in the top 10 spots. Over the last 10 years, the award has been won by three running backs, four quarterbacks, and three wide receivers. The recent history has been dominated by the WR position, with three of the last four winners being pass catchers.
As we look ahead to the 2023 NFL season, let’s take a look at the Offensive Player of the Year odds, as well as some predictions and longshot picks from our panel of analysts. Making up our panel are PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, our Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, Betting and Fantasy Analyst Jason Katz, and FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica.
Live NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
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Wingo: Offensive Player of the Year is always tricky. Everything is skewed toward QBs, but a lot of running backs populate this list, so let’s go with it. The offense in San Fran is set up to let Christian McCaffrey (+1100 at Caesars) eat no matter who is playing QB.
Fallica: It was a season cut short by injury last year for Deebo Samuel (+4000 at FanDuel), but he returned and showed why he’s the most dynamic player on the 49ers’ offense.
In 2021, he combined for 136 touches, 1,771 combined rushing and receiving yards, and 14 TDs. He’ll continue to see the ball in a variety of different ways, regardless of who the Niners QB is.
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[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/dynamic/sportsbooks:1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/promos:1?id=102a40b8-9b4f-4c83-8875-06bfa44ab447″]Bearman: He could’ve won it last year and will be set up to win it this year. Tyreek Hill (+2000) is going to be part of the most explosive offense in football. He’s aiming to be the first 2,000-yard receiver, and if Tua stays healthy, 17 games in that offense with QB1 could lead to MVP.
Katz: Historically, this is basically the non-QB MVP award. We’re looking for a truly outstanding offensive season from a running back or wide receiver. Give me Tyreek Hill at +2000. Hill caught 119 passes for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns in his first year with the Dolphins. Now, he’s had a full season to really master Mike McDaniel’s offense.
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If Tua Tagovailoa can play 17 games, Hill has a legitimate shot at a 2,000-yard season. If he does that and scores 10+ touchdowns, it will be hard for him not to win this award.
Blewis: Christian McCaffrey was an absolute monster in Kyle Shanahan’s offense after the trade to the 49ers last season. In 11 games, he put up 1,210 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. While there are a lot of mouths to feed in that 49ers offense, the second half of last season gave us plenty of evidence that Shanahan will give McCaffrey plenty of opportunity both as a runner and a receiver.
With a full year in San Francisco, I expect him to be the most productive skill player this upcoming season, and he is my pick for OPOY (+1500 at DraftKings).
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: Let’s put Deshaun Watson (+4500 at Caesars) in this conversation. He arguably has the best team around him in his career. The rust of almost two years off is gone. Whatever the best of him is, you’d expect it to show up in 2023.
Bearman: Before the injury, Cooper Kupp (+2200) was well on his way to his second consecutive Offensive Player of the Year award, and that was on a pretty bad Rams team, in which he was the main — and sometimes the only — option. Well, Kupp should be back 100% this year, so why not again?
Katz: We’ve seen what Aaron Rodgers can do with elite WR1s. Garrett Wilson, at +2500, looks like the nice elite WR1 in the NFL. He just hasn’t taken that step yet.
If it comes this year, and he puts together a season like Justin Jefferson did last year, Wilson is very much capable of winning it. Rodgers loves to hone in on his WR1, and Wilson is significantly better than every other receiver on the Jets. If he sees Davante Adams-level volume, Wilson could be a not-so-surprise winner this season.
Blewis: People are almost forgetting the insane pace Cooper Kupp was on last season before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. In just nine games, he had 75 receptions, 812 receiving yards, and six TDs. That’s a 17-week pace of 142 receptions, 1,534 receiving yards, and 11 TDs.
A big factor in Kupp’s odds must be that the Los Angeles Rams are expected to be one of the worst teams this season. However, he is a worthwhile flier given his stardom and expected opportunity in this offense (+3000 at DraftKings).
One more longshot OPOY bet I recently made is Chris Olave (+5500 at DraftKings). After a stellar rookie season last year, Olave is poised to make a monster leap this season in New Orleans. We have seen guys like Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have breakout second seasons, and Olave should have an even greater target share in 2023 than each of them did last season. With Derek Carr now as his quarterback, we have heard nothing but good things out of Saints training camp about their chemistry.
Olave’s odds are longer than Breece Hall’s and DeAndre Hopkins. This is too good of value to pass up.
Recent Risers and Fallers
The player who has seen the biggest shift in OPOY odds is Jonathan Taylor. After a contract dispute with the Colts and getting permission to seek a trade, Taylor’s odds have shifted from +3000 to +4000 since the start of training camp.
Who Is the Favorite To Win Offensive Player of the Year?
The oddsmakers appear to believe we could be in line for a third-straight WR winner, as they have installed Ja’Marr Chase (+1100) and Justin Jefferson (+1300) as the top two favorites.
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The two young wide receivers have had extremely successful starts to their careers and will look to impress again in a contract year for both. They’re ahead of the top two running backs in McCaffrey (+1500) and Nick Chubb (+1700), with the first quarterback listed being Justin Fields at +2000.