The 2023 fantasy football season is back, and now it’s time to dive into Carolina Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving value on draft day. Can Mingo assert himself into the rotation early and become a valuable player, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Jonathan Mingo’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Although opinions on the 2023 wide receiver rookie class waned the closer we got to the NFL Draft, this class was very talented. There will be players who will likely surprise us with their early-career performances, and Mingo is one of those players.
The Panthers had a plan in place this offseason. As part of the trade to move up for the No. 1 overall pick to select Bryce Young, Carolina was forced to trade away WR DJ Moore.
And while they did sign experienced players, such as Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, they obviously wanted to pair their rookie QB with another young high-upside receiver. The Panthers did just that with Mingo in Round 2 at No. 39 overall.
Mingo may not have had top-tier college stats, but he has the ability to make plays from anywhere on the field. Standing at 6’2″ and weighing 220 pounds, he possesses the physicality of a player of his size.
Although Mingo’s ability to separate is not always consistent, he has the potential to make explosive plays once the ball is in his possession.
At Ole Miss, Mingo was frequently utilized in various ways, including receiving 18% of his targets through screen passes. Head coach Frank Reich will surely take advantage of this versatility.
Truth be told, Mingo should have broken out in 2021, but an injury sidelined him. Nevertheless, he picked up right where he left off in 2022, catching 51 passes for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Mingo’s athletic profile is what makes him so intriguing. Despite having a large frame, he posted a 4.46 40 time and was in the 89th percentile in explosiveness.
This will be a bit of a flashback name, but there’s some Anquan Boldin in Mingo’s play style. The difference is Mingo is over a quarter of a second quicker than Boldin, and he has massive hands that swallow the ball at 10 3/8 inches.
Although I do like Mingo’s long-term future, his upside will likely be hampered in 2023 due to not only being a rookie himself but also having a rookie QB and a new head coach leading the organization.
That’s likely too many variables for even someone with Mingo’s upside to overcome. Even though Carolina is an improving team and in the weakest division in the NFL, this is a team at the beginning of the reset, not at the precipice of a breakthrough.
While we wait to see what he will look like on the field in training camp and the preseason, current projections have Mingo slated for approximately 45-50 receptions on 80-85 targets for 600-640 yards and about four touchdowns in 2023.
Should You Draft Jonathan Mingo This Year?
Over the last several seasons, rookie wide receivers have been one of fantasy’s most predictable cheat codes. Their ADP is suppressed compared to their upside, and typically more than one will finish inside the top 30 and sometimes flirt with high-end WR2 territory.
Based on his ADP, I’m leaving the possibility open that Mingo becomes one of the better wide receivers if he can mesh with Young early.
Currently, Mingo is being drafted as the WR70 with an ADP in the 220 region, approximately the 18th round of 12-team formats.
However, there is quite a wide variation from site to site, which is often influenced by the site’s staff rankings. You could find Mingo taken as 150-160 on some sites and down around the 300s on others.
Although there is some variance in his ADP, Mingo is typically drafted as Carolina’s WR3 behind Chark and Thielen, who are both proven veterans.
While I can agree with Chark going above Mingo, as he does have comparable per-catch upside, I would draft Mingo ahead of Thielen, who, despite seeing 107 targets (28th), was the 16th-lowest in YPRR and finished outside the top 50 in points per route run and points per target.
Thielen’s the low-upside option of the three and won’t have the touchdowns to carry his value anymore as he did in Minnesota.
In the middle rounds of drafts, in which all you’re doing is loading up on upside, Mingo makes all the sense in the world. He’s someone who has the athletic profile to maximize his touches while also having an ADP that isn’t going to break the bank in your redraft lobbies.
As a WR5/6, Mingo carries all the upside but little risk. If you believe in his talent and the Panthers in 2023, I would advise drafting Mingo rather than hoping to snag him off the waiver wire, assuming he even makes it out of your draft.