The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Houston Texans WR Nico Collins’ 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are getting a value on draft day. Is 2023 the year for Collins to assert himself as the Texans’ No. 1, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Nico Collins’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
One of my favorite things to do in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts when trying to find potential breakout candidates for the upcoming season is to find teams with depth charts filled with ambiguity where the pecking order’s not set in stone.
One of the players I keep coming back to is Collins, who has a chance to be a third-year breakout and the No. 1 receiver on his roster for the first time.
A third-round draft pick in 2021 (89th overall), Collins hasn’t seen a drastic workload but has gradually watched his snap rate rise from 62% as a rookie to 72% in his second season. Recording a 19% target share, Collins was targeted on 24% of his routes, catching 37 of 66 targets for 481 yards and two touchdowns, setting career highs in every category.
Nearly 6’4″ and 215 pounds, Collins is also the only Houston player with size and was a reliable target even when covered with a 66% contest-to-catch rate. Granted, we have to remember the quarterback play Collins has been plagued by. And there are times when he was thrown back into coverage, something I like to call the Terry McLaurin effect.
Houston and Collins Look To Turn The Clock Ahead…to 2016?
2023 is a brand new year for the Texans. They have their hopeful franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud and a new OC in Bobby Slowik, who was the San Francisco 49ers’ passing game coordinator last year. Interestingly, when asked by the media, Collins mentioned that Slowick had him watching clips of Julio Jones when he played with the Falcons.
“Yeah, Julio. Julio Jones,” Collins told reporters June 6 after organized team activities. “Coach [Slowik], he pulled clips from Atlanta and watched Julio run it. San Fran’s concepts, same offense, you know. Just watching guys run that route.”
Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Atlanta in 2015 and 2016. If the Texans do plan on looking like the 2016 Falcons, we should expect a ton of play-action (27.6% in 2016), which certainly could help the passing game. But I’m not sure we should be comparing the skill set and role of one of the league’s most dominant receivers to someone who has yet to record over 1,000 yards in their career.
With Robert Woods in decline, plus John Mechie III and Tank Dell yet to record a snap, Collins is likely the most affordable No. 1 WR in 2023 fantasy football leagues. However, his projections are not likely to match those of other top targets. Collins currently projects for approximately 45-50 targets with 650-690 yards and four touchdowns.
Should You Draft Nico Collins This Year?
Although I’m conservatively projecting Collins’ 2023 fantasy stats, as noted earlier, you won’t find a more affordable option with his opportunity. With four games of nine or more targets last year before injuries knocked him out for the final five games, Collins’ ADP looks even better.
Using a composite, which considers multiple different sites, Collins is coming off the board as the WR60 with an ADP in the region of 175, placing him in the 14th to 16th round of 12-team 1QB redraft leagues.
Even if Stroud struggles, which should be the expectation, Houston was 32nd in yards per play, so it has to be better than it was in 2022 with Davis Mills at quarterback. However, Mills does deserve some credit since Collins had a 90.2% catchable ball rate last year.
At this point in the draft, you’re likely drafting your sixth or seventh WR for your roster, which is well beyond anyone you’re looking to start in Week 1.
Draft Collins, and let him sit on your bench until you feel comfortable with his role in the maturation of Stroud. He has the size, athleticism, and opportunity heading into 2023 to be a third-year breakout, which is absolutely still a thing in fantasy.