The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will Samuel bounce back and establish himself and his role following the structure change of last year, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Deebo Samuel’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Samuel is a fan favorite for a reason. His style of play is endearing to fans, and he’s quickly become one of the top players in the NFL due to his wide range of skills. But I wonder if that’s gone almost too far in fantasy football, where sometimes perceived value and actual value don’t line up.
In 2021, not only did he catch 77 of his 121 targets for 1,405 yards with six touchdowns, but Samuel also ran for 365 yards on 59 attempts with a record-setting eight scores.
I view that as his ceiling, as the touchdown efficiency was off the charts. Additionally, Samuel averaged 18.2 yards per reception, which was nearly seven yards higher than what he averaged in 2020 or 2022.
Unfortunately, that set many up for disappointment in 2022. Finishing as the WR35 in PPR formats, Samuel played in 14 games, catching 56 of his 94 targets for 632 yards with two touchdowns and rushing 42 times for 232 yards and three more scores while also dealing with some injuries along the way. Samuel missed Week 8 due to a hamstring injury and then missed Weeks 15-17 due to an MCL sprain and ankle injury.
We also have to look at the impact Christian McCaffrey had on Samuel. He dropped from 16.4 PPR with approximately 90 yards a game down to just 11.0 PPR points on 52 total yards and just under 6.4 touches a game. That’s going from the WR10 overall and 15th in points to 41st behind Zay Jones, Rondale Moore, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins.
Samuel still drew a substantial share of the 49ers’ passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but he averaged a career-low 48.6 receiving yards per game, saw only five deep targets (108th) with 12 red-zone looks (36th), and his aDOT was just 4.2 (102nd) last season.
The greatness of the 49ers’ offense is both a blessing and a curse in fantasy. If someone wants to take Samuel away, that’s fine because they have multiple ways to beat you, but McCaffrey’s role is going nowhere fast.
As for Samuel, in fantasy, reality might be a bit disappointing, but only to those who still view Samuel as a top-five upside receiver and not what he is: a WR2.
Current projections have Samuel with approximately 60 receptions for 800-875 yards and five touchdowns while also rushing around 45-50 times for 250 yards and 2-3 more scores.
Should You Draft Deebo Samuel This Year?
Although I do have concerns for Samuel in 2023, we know he will have a job — that’s for sure. Samuel is the No. 1 wide receiver for the 49ers, and that won’t change. But what we must consider for upcoming fantasy football drafts in 2023 is whether or not Samuel’s talent is worth the required investment on draft day.
Based on early ADP reporting, fantasy managers remain bullish on Samuel, but he has dropped a bit when compared to last year. Currently, Samuel is being drafted as the WR16, just inside 40th overall. Across the various sites, there is not a huge amount of discrepancy., especially when it comes to PPR scoring.
Mid-WR2 value feels suitable for Samuel, and as long as it doesn’t creep any higher, I think the fantasy community — for the most part — has this one right. However, that doesn’t mean I will likely end up with a lot of shares of Samuel in redraft leagues this year.
I prefer to wait for the additional four rounds and select Brandon Aiyuk as the WR30 with an ADP between 60 and 90. Aiyuk is just as dangerous on a per-target basis, and while he won’t see the rushing utilization, he will likely out-target Samuel in 2023, whether with Brock Purdy or Trey Lance under center.
Samuel is someone who has to maximize every touch, and if the touchdowns don’t come similar to last year, I don’t see Samuel rising up to another tier. In contrast, I could see Aiyuk playing as a mid-WR2 for a considerably lower price. For me, that makes Aiyuk likely a better selection in your fantasy football drafts.