Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox has been a touchdown-or-bust option for a couple of years now. With the Bills adding a rookie tight end in the first round, are Knox’s days as Buffalo’s TE1 numbered? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Dawson Knox’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It’s a bit strange to think the Bills are looking to move on from Knox. He’s been effective enough and is still just 26 years old.
Knox is a very good athlete and has ball skills better than you’d expect from someone his size. But he’s not exactly a complete tight end, which is what Buffalo appears to be looking for, and why they drafted Dalton Kincaid.
After barely being targeted over his first two seasons, Knox broke out in Year 3, catching 49 of 71 targets for 587 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021. He averaged 10.9 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE9 on the season.
Knox had a similar 2022 season, catching 48 of 65 targets for 517 yards and six touchdowns. Due mostly to the drop in touchdowns, Knox only averaged 9.0 ppg, finishing as the TE14.
Should You Draft Dawson Knox This Year?
While Knox has undoubtedly been a viable starting TE in fantasy over the past two seasons, the reason is obvious — touchdowns. Knox has scored a whopping 15 times over his last 30 games and on 15.4% of his receptions, a truly outrageous number.
Knox did so without really seeing a massive red-zone target count. He had just nine last year. The Bills’ usage of him also aided in his ability to score. Knox ran a route on 76.4% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks, the 12th-highest rate in the NFL, and his 80.7% snap share was ninth in the league.
Kincaid is not going to show up in Week 1 and relegate Knox to a backup, but he is going to play. That fact alone reduces Knox’s fantasy value for 2023.
Given Buffalo’s lack of a true reliable pass-catching option behind Stefon Diggs, it’s possible the Bills run more 12 personnel, allowing Knox and Kincaid to get on the field at the same time. I just wouldn’t bank on it.
Even with an elite young QB and a 61% neutral-game-script pass rate, it’s unlikely the Bills will have two fantasy-relevant tight ends. Someone is getting left behind, if not both. While Knox will probably open the season as the TE1, once the rookie gets acclimated, it’s only a matter of time.
With Knox, you have a touchdown-dependent high-end TE2 with an expiration date. And fantasy managers seem wise to this reality.
Knox’s ADP sits at TE17, No. 167 overall, 22 overall spots behind Kincaid at TE15. I have Knox down at TE28, but the difference is largely meaningless. Once you get past the TE16-18 range, you’re looking at players not being selected in standard-sized 12-team leagues.
I won’t be drafting Knox anywhere and don’t envision him having much fantasy value unless Kincaid either gets hurt or turns out to be a colossal bust.
