The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into New York Jets RB Michael Carter’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Carter find enough volume to be viable in redraft leagues in 2023, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Michael Carter’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Carter had a solid rookie season in 2021 after being drafted in the fourth round. He posted just under 1,000 total yards with three touchdowns and was a dependable receiving option for the Jets with an 11.5% target share.
Carter also ranked 11th in yards per touch, 12th in yards created, and 11th in evaded tackles while sitting eighth among running backs with at least 100 carries with 3.4 yards after contact per attempt.
But then 2022 happened. For one, Carter was one of the biggest losers of the draft, with the Jets selecting the top back available in Breece Hall. Carter came into the year expecting to receive a sizable workload, and that was the case with Carter looking to re-establish himself as an NFL-caliber running back following Hall’s torn ACL.
But the efficiency wasn’t there like we had seen in previous years. Carter dropped to 4.5 yards per touch (46th) and was out of the top 35 in evaded tackles (44th).
His yards per carry also dropped from 4.3 to 3.5 (42nd), which directly ties to Carter being unable to get more than what was provided as he fell to 2.7 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked 36th out of the 45 running backs with at least 100 carries.
Following Hall’s injury, Carter was only the RB49 overall in half-PPR, rushing 48 times for 174 yards with one touchdown and catching 21 of his 30 targets for 137 yards while averaging only 5.1 half-PPR points per game (55th).
With Hall ahead of schedule in his recovery, plus the addition of Dalvin Cook, it’s difficult to see how Carter will be able to get back the value he saw as a rookie.
With the Jets in a win-now window with Aaron Rodgers, the team clearly felt Cook leaves them in a better position for 2023 while Hall continues his recovery. This pushes Carter further down the pecking order, which doesn’t help as he already needs to compete with a Zonovan Knight and Israel Abanikanda for touches.
Before the signing of Cook, with projecting Carter as the No. 2 for the Jets, I had the third-year player recording around 90 carries for 325 yards and two touchdowns and catching approximately 30 of his targets for 230 yards with one additional receiving score. That number has to drop even further with Carter sliding to No. 3 on the RB depth chart.
Should You Draft Michael Carter This Year?
After seeing what Carter did in his second season, while also acknowledging the Jets are going to be more passing-focused with Rodgers under center compared to Zach Wilson, it should be no real surprise that Carter’s ADP and preseason value have taken a significant hit when compared to this time last year.
According to Underdog Fantasy, Carter has an ADP of RB71. This should continue to drop as we get further removed from Cook landing in New York.
Going into 2023 redraft leagues, Carter will likely not be a player I target in drafts. With Hall returning to practice and Cook likely to take over the majority of the work to start the season, Carter is unlikely to have a guaranteed role.
With Carter then competing with both Knight and Abanikanda for scraps, there is very little room for him to not just drastically outperform his ADP but even reach RB4 territory, where you would begin to consider him as a Flex option.
Even then, you’re better off going with a higher-upside No. 3 WR in a good matchup than someone who likely doesn’t have a share of the high-priority goal-to-go rushing opportunities. Throw Cook into this mix, and Carter’s best chance for fantasy football relevance will have to come on another roster, as there will be no room on the Jets to do anything.
With more paths for Carter to disappoint than surprise, he is a low-floor, low-ceiling running back I would steer away from in 10- or 12-team formats for fantasy football.