As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Puka Nacua’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The partially rebuilding Rams accumulated 14 picks in this year’s NFL Draft. Ten of them were in the fifth round or later. Only one was a wideout.
It was an interesting and also not entirely surprising decision. This franchise is at a crossroads only 18 months after winning the Super Bowl, but its receiving corps remains an asset. Of course, Cooper Kupp has a lot to do with that. When healthy, he’s one of the league’s best offensive weapons.
Then there’s a steep drop-off. 2020 second-rounder Van Jefferson still hasn’t put it all together. 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell has flashed but might not be ready to break out. The overachieving Ben Skowronek probably isn’t a long-term answer.
The Rams could have landed Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, or a host of other promising WRs in the second round of this year’s draft. They might have nixed their trade with the Giants that gave New York No. 73 overall pick, which the G-Men used to snag Jalin Hyatt.
The point is L.A. could have upgraded their receiving corps with a flashy name. Instead, they mostly bolstered their offensive and defensive lines and bided their time. And with the final selection of the fifth round, they secured Nacua.
Nacua isn’t a typical WR prospect. He ran the ball 39 times in two seasons at BYU, culminating in five rushing scores. He lacks speed but isn’t slow. Essentially, the Rams could deploy him in various ways. As a result, he doesn’t have to be a top-three WR in this offense to contribute each week.
What does that mean for his fantasy production? Well, there’s a lot of bust potential for the rookie, despite the relatively thin competition ahead of him. Beyond Kupp and Jefferson, nothing is guaranteed. Assuredly, the Rams want to see what they have in Atwell.
But Nacua could be a serviceable gadget player. He might also ride the pine for most of the year. Or, he could eventually win a starting job and become a deep-league fantasy target.
The most likely scenario places him with roughly 200-250 receiving yards and 75-125 rushing yards, as well as a couple of scores.
Optimally, he could hit a 45-550-4 receiving line, but that would assume he’s consistently the No. 4 or No. 5 offensive option behind Kupp, Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, and Cam Akers.
That’s a bit of a stretch, though it’s worth highlighting, given the unpredictability of an offense loaded with skill players who might not even start on most teams.
Should You Draft Puka Nacua This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Nacua with an ADP of WR92. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR100. So let’s keep this simple.
If you’re drafting Nacua, you’re either in a giant league where 280+ guys come off the board, or you’re a Rams fan who can’t let go, or you believe L.A. will implode in 2023, necessitating a hard look at the younger guys ahead of 2024.
Nasty release and route by Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/OQZhtnmLpt
— Benjamin Criddle (@CriddleBenjamin) August 13, 2023
In that last example, suppose the Rams tumble in their first five contests. That’s entirely possible, as their opponents consist of the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts, and Eagles. Could they be 2-6 at the close of October? Absolutely.
We shouldn’t be surprised if they’re 2-6 or 3-5 at that point, and engineering a more comprehensive rebuild (to the extent they can) will begin in earnest.
In that scenario, if Jefferson hasn’t played the best football of his career, the Rams might decide to let him walk after this season. The aging Higbee also might be wrapping up his time in L.A. That should place more attention on Atwell and Nacua.
So drafting the rookie receiver requires a leap of faith that might seem extreme in August. But by October, it might make a lot of sense. The Rams are not realistic Super Bowl contenders. They might not be again until the post-Matthew Stafford era.
For now, Nacua represents a hint of the future. There’s a clear path for him to generate top-50 fantasy production in the second half of the season. There’s also a clear path for him to remain under wraps. If you’re in one of those 280+ player leagues, then he’s a slight bargain, given his half-decent upside.