Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee is four years removed from his stellar close to the 2019 season. Still the unquestioned TE1 on the Rams, Higbee has been more of a fantasy TE2 than TE1. What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Tyler Higbee’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Ever since his 11.5 PPR fantasy-points-per-game finish in 2019, Higbee supporters have been chasing that production. He’s never been able to get close. The closest he’s come is 9.8 ppg in 2021. Last season, Higbee averaged 8.9 ppg, finishing as the TE15.
Injuries to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp certainly didn’t help, but there’s no real way of spinning Higbee’s declining efficiency as a good thing. After averaging 11.8 yards per reception in 2020, Higbee saw that number drop to 9.2 in 2021 and 8.6 in 2022. His 1.43 yards per route run was 24th in the league.
The good news is the usage is still there. Higbee’s 20.9% target share was fourth in the league, and his 24.9% targets-per-route-run rate was sixth. Only two tight ends ran more routes than Higbee last season.
Often times you will hear me say a player’s season was the tale of two halves. For Higbee, he was half good and half bad, but it wasn’t linear. Higbee spent the first five weeks of the season posting consistently useful fantasy lines. He scored double-digits in four out of five, and even his single-digit effort was a respectable 8.9.
Beginning in Week 6, Higbee vanished. Outside of an outlier 15.3-point outing in Week 10, plus a solid 8.5 points in Week 11, Higbee did not score above 3.5 fantasy points in any other game between Weeks 6 and 14. Suffice it to say he was dropped in many fantasy leagues.
Then, in Week 15, Higbee posted 12.7 fantasy points and followed that up with a career-high 30.4 in Week 16. Fantasy managers who tried to jump on the bandwagon were rewarded with 4.1 points in Week 17.
Basically, Higbee’s 2022 was a total rollercoaster, with fantasy managers never really being able to trust him.
Should You Draft Tyler Higbee This Year?
The good news is there’s reason for optimism in 2023. By all accounts, Stafford and Kupp are healthy. While I am never one to say having someone else as an elite target hog benefits a fellow pass catcher, there is no clear second option behind Kupp. So, Kupp being healthy can only help command the attention of defenses. There are still hundreds of targets available beyond Kupp.
The Rams’ wide receiver depth chart is quite shallow. Aside from Kupp, they have Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, and rookie fifth-rounder Puka Nacua. We have every reason to expect Higbee would be second on this team in targets.
Higbee’s ADP sits at TE19, No. 171 overall. If you wait on tight end, you can easily draft Higbee and feel comfortable he won’t get you zero. There’s also the chance the Rams’ offense is just better, and Higbee returns to TE1 levels. This team is just two years removed from winning a Super Bowl in a season where Stafford threw 41 touchdowns.
I have Higbee ranked at TE13 and he’s only even that low because there are tight ends ahead of him with more upside. I really do like Higbee this year. Given what we’ve seen from him over the past four seasons, as well as what he did with Baker Mayfield late last year, Higbee is being drafted at or near his floor. It’s all reward and no risk. If you need a tight end late in drafts, Higbee is a fine option.