As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Buffalo Bills RB Damien Harris’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Damien Harris’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
I strongly believed last summer that the Patriots were poised to trade Harris before the midseason deadline, just as they did the previous August with Sony Michel. In fact, Michel’s steadying impact on the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams likely elevated Harris’ value by extension.
Surely New England — which were longshots to win it all last season — would send Harris and his expiring contract to another team in exchange for useful draft picks.
Clearly, I was wrong. And I also maintain that the Pats were wrong to keep him. Entering the 2022 season, Harris was viewed as a dominant 25-year-old RB with several years of productivity remaining. With a near-elite broken-tackle rate and a career clip of 4.8 yards per carry, he was on pace to becoming one of the most prolific Patriots RBs in history.
Yet, eyeing a possible playoff berth, they held onto him. He got hurt. And then it was too late to send him away.
It was a not-so-minor coup that Buffalo signed him on the cheap this offseason. Harris is only 26 years old and doesn’t have the mileage of many other multi-year starters his age. He can mentor the younger James Cook while operating as the thunder to Cook’s lightning.
The two might combine for 350-375 touches. And if that seems like a lot, consider that Cook and Devin Singletary combined for 325 last season. Harris is better suited than Singletary to serve as a bruising two-down back with strong goal-line chops. In fact, 14 of Harris’s last 17 touchdowns have come inside the opposing 8-yard line, while 12 of 17 have come inside the five.
Harris was the overall RB14 two years ago, though that was largely due to his 15 touchdowns, which accounted for 43% of his fantasy points. Still, few teams can rival the Bills’ offensive prowess. Harris should get plenty of looks near the end zone. Eight, 10, or even 12 scores are doable.
So are 750+ rushing yards, assuming 160+ carries — a reasonable expectation in a backfield that, aside from Cook, includes 33-year-old Latavius Murray and bench fodder Nyheim Hines. We should expect Harris to play a consistent role as long as he’s still producing. And nothing we’ve seen suggests Harris is definitively post-prime.
He won’t get many receptions. That’s not his strength, and the team has plenty of guys (including Cook) who can play that role. Instead, we might conservatively project 650-750 total yards and eight total scores for Harris.
Should You Draft Damien Harris This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Harris with an ADP of RB40. For context, he was the RB48 last year across 13 games, totaling 462 rushing yards and three rushing scores while collecting a 17-97-0 receiving line.
Can he be more productive than he was last season? Absolutely. Will he? Probably.
Harris has legitimate top-40 appeal, despite his volume and TD dependency. He’s proven that he can be a fantasy asset as a mostly two-down back. Even 12 carries a game would put him on pace for more than 200 for the season. Last year, everyone with 100+ carries finished in the top 50. Among those with 200+, Brian Robinson fared worst, finishing as the RB43.
If 40 running backs come off the board and Harris falls into your lap, I would take him without hesitation, especially if you’ve already snagged Cook. He might burn you for plenty of weeks (when he doesn’t score). But with a high TD potential, he needs to be rostered, and don’t discount the possibility of a return to 2021 form.