The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Pacheco build off his surprising rookie success, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Isiah Pacheco’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
After watching the disaster which was Clyde Edwards-Helaire, fantasy football managers were rightfully skeptical about the prospects of Pacheco, especially given that he was a seventh-round pick. Clearly, he was unlikely to do anything on the field. Well, not so fast, my friend.
Rushing 170 times, Pacheco totaled 830 rushing yards with five touchdowns and caught 13 of his 14 targets for 130 additional yards to finish as the RB36 half-PPR scoring and was 46th in per game scoring at 7.6 fantasy points. But that doesn’t give Pacheco enough credit.
From Weeks 10 through 17, when Pacheco solidified his role as the starting running back, he was the RB18 in points per game and was sixth in rushing yards with 487. Pacheco averaged 65 yards on 13 touches a game, despite teammate Jerick McKinnon sitting as the RB4 overall thanks to his receiving utilization.
Pacheco even had some solid moments in the postseason, including rushing for 76 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. 53rd in points per opportunity, Pacheco sat 16th in yards per touch at 5.2 and 46th in yards created per touch at 2.08. Despite Pacheco running a 4.37 40-yard dash, the chunk plays didn’t come all that often.
It’s also worth noting that Pacheco will be dealing with McKinnon again, as he re-signed in free agency, and there’s a potential Pacheco 2.0 already sitting on the roster. Pacheco was No. 1 in weight-adjusted 40 times last year with a 118.46 at 216 pounds, and it just so happens that the Chiefs once again drafted the running back with the highest weight-adjusted 40 times, with Deneric Prince topping the speed score metrics of this year’s class with 114.22 thanks to a 4.41 40-yard dash at 216 pounds.
But don’t worry; I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice, and I do favor Pacheco as the lead running back for the Chiefs. My current projections have Pacheco recording 195-200 carries for 900-920 yards with 5-6 touchdowns while catching approximately 15 of his targets for 175 yards and the possibility of another trip to the end zone.
Should You Draft Isiah Pacheco This Year?
Pacheco went undrafted in most leagues last season, but that certainly will not be the case for Pacheco in 2023, as fantasy managers will pay quite a bit more of a premium on draft day.
Based on the current reports leagues, Pacheco is being drafted as the RB28 with an ADP of 70, placing him at the end of the sixth round and maybe just into the beginning of the seventh round in 12-team leagues.
Based on what we saw last season, that’s a fair price for Pacheco if you’re drafting him as your RB3. And I think that’s as high as I would want to have him, given that I don’t see Pacheco as the type of player who will have massive boom games.
For one, this offense runs through Patrick Mahomes, and Pacheco doesn’t have a role in the passing game like McKinnon.
My concern for Pacheco’s value is the lack of a ceiling or upside. If anything, some players in his draft range have more upside, such as Rachaad White, James Conner, Javonte Williams, Jamaal Williams, and especially Alexander Madison.
While I do expect Pacheco to return approximate value, I don’t see him being someone who could take multiple steps up the ladder this season, as at the end of the day, he’s never going to be the primary option or have PPR upside.
I find it far likelier that Pacheco, in 2023, will be a player that falls to me in fantasy football drafts rather than someone I am actively reaching to acquire.